Julian Brandt
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Julian Brandt's performance-implied value at EUR 12.7M-57.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.2M-16.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-9.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1608 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €9.8M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -57% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1608 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.62
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1471
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.1M – €9.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -63% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1608 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | AM | 29 | 1608 | 53% | 7 | 4 | 0.62 | 0.35 | 1471 | 1656 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | AM | 30 | 2319 | 76% | 5 | 10 | 0.58 | 0.35 | 1491 | 1680 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | AM | 32 | 2232 | 73% | 7 | 12 | 0.77 | 0.39 | 1519 | 1716 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | AM | 32 | 2412 | 79% | 9 | 8 | 0.63 | 0.35 | 1512 | 1691 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | AM | 31 | 2082 | 68% | 9 | 8 | 0.73 | 0.42 | 1502 | 1643 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | AM | 31 | 1490 | 49% | 3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.22 | 1495 | 1703 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | AM | 33 | 2209 | 72% | 3 | 8 | 0.45 | 0.29 | 1521 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | AM | 33 | 2675 | 87% | 7 | 13 | 0.67 | 0.43 | 1511 | 1625 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LW | 34 | 2336 | 76% | 9 | 5 | 0.54 | 0.46 | 1509 | 1569 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LW | 32 | 2306 | 75% | 3 | 11 | 0.55 | 0.41 | 1521 | 1547 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LW | 29 | 1623 | 53% | 9 | 5 | 0.78 | 0.47 | 1491 | 1638 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LW | 25 | 1110 | 36% | 4 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.34 | 1509 | 1660 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | RW | 12 | 586 | 19% | 2 | 3 | 0.77 | 0.40 | 1529 | 1602 | 1.03 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 449 | 3 | 0 | 1561 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 140 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 13 | 881 | 0 | 5 | 1627 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 12 | 790 | 2 | 3 | 1729 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 225 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 477 | 1 | 1 | 1616 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 215 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 395 | 0 | 0 | 1649 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 177 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 1626 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 214 | 0 | 0 | 1582 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 207 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 76 | 1 | 0 | 1919 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 488 | 2 | 3 | 1621 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 180 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 7 | 408 | 1 | 2 | 1507 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 254 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 397 | 3 | 2 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 8 | 534 | 1 | 0 | 1665 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 290 | 0 | 0 | 1655 |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 132 | 1 | 3 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1652 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1590 |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 316 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 1684 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1484 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1769 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borja Valero Serie A · 2015 | 30 | €14.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Jesús Corona Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €18.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| João Moutinho Ligue 1 · 2017 | 31 | €13.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Charles Aránguiz Bundesliga · 2019 | 30 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Filip Kostić Serie A · 2024 | 32 | €6.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| David Silva Premier League · 2016 | 30 | €33.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Marcos Llorente Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €35.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Daichi Kamada Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €18.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Dortmund | Without Club | Unknown | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Leverkusen | Dortmund | €25.0M | €50.0M |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Wolfsburg U19 | Leverkusen | €500k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Wolfsburg U17 | Wolfsburg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Oberneul. Yth. | Wolfsburg U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Borgfeld Yth. | Oberneul. Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.