Aleksandr Golovin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aleksandr Golovin's performance-implied value at EUR 5.8M-9.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.5M-17.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.2M-9.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (1661 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 75.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €11.7M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -69% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1661 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.54
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1527
- Opponent strength
- 1477
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.2M – €9.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; relative output up 118% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -72% (IQR -76% to -61%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1661 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LW | 25 | 1661 | 54% | 5 | 5 | 0.54 | 0.45 | 1477 | 1527 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LW | 19 | 1153 | 38% | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 1456 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | AM | 25 | 2156 | 70% | 6 | 6 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 1484 | 1573 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LW | 34 | 2483 | 73% | 8 | 7 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 1437 | 1485 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LM | 27 | 1507 | 44% | 3 | 4 | 0.42 | 0.29 | 1417 | 1599 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | LM | 21 | 1072 | 31% | 5 | 9 | 1.18 | 0.45 | 1400 | 1549 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CM | 25 | 2070 | 82% | 3 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 1434 | 1426 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | AM | 30 | 2302 | 67% | 3 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 1447 | 1396 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CM | 27 | 2283 | 85% | 5 | 4 | 0.35 | 0.22 | 1392 | 1596 | 0.75 |
| 2016/17 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 30 | 2524 | 93% | 3 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1424 | 1566 | 0.70 |
| 2015/16 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 17 | 620 | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 1468 | 1594 | 0.79 |
| 2014/15 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | LW | 7 | 121 | 4% | 0 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.30 | 1366 | 1638 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 7 | 491 | 0 | 1 | 1623 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 9 | 577 | 0 | 1 | 1670 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | AS Monaco | 1 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1728 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 8 | 613 | 0 | 1 | 1494 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 2 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 1669 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 7 | 332 | 0 | 3 | 1497 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 4 | 273 | 1 | 1 | 1538 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 3 | 230 | 0 | 1 | 1638 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 6 | 537 | 0 | 1 | 1656 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 5 | 450 | 2 | 1 | 1612 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PFK CSKA Moskva | 4 | 344 | 0 | 0 | 1437 |
| 2017/18 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 6 | 495 | 0 | 0 | 1615 |
| 2016/17 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1629 |
| 2015/16 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 4 | 340 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1699 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1539 |
| 2014/15 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 3 | 158 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Muriel Serie A · 2022 | 31 | €20.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Martin Terrier Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €20.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Giampaolo Pazzini Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €14.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Borja Iglesias Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €20.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Hugo Almeida Super Lig · 2013 | 29 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Kevin Mirallas Premier League · 2017 | 30 | €13.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Alfred Finnbogason Bundesliga · 2018 | 29 | €10.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Gorka Guruzeta Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2018 | CSKA Moscow | Monaco | €30.0M | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | CSKA Moscow II | CSKA Moscow | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | CSKA U17 | CSKA Moscow II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.