Issa Diop

29 yrs · Centre-back · Morocco
Fulham FC · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 194 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€8.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€3.0M – €7.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€7.9M – €16.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.8M – €6.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€359k – €13.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€3.0M – €7.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€7.9M – €16.7M
Projected value (24 months)€2.8M – €6.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Issa Diop's performance-implied value at EUR 7.9M-16.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.0M-7.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-6.7M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceHigh88.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €4.0M vs market €8.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-51% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €35.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
814 (24% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.11
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.09
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
89 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1576
Opponent strength
1619
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.8M – €6.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts; relative output up 169% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -64% to -19%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 814 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Fulham FCPremier LeagueCB1381424%100.110.09161915761.30
2024/25Fulham FCPremier LeagueCB21133539%000.000.03158015551.23
2023/24Fulham FCPremier LeagueCB18142542%000.000.03159715241.14
2022/23Fulham FCPremier LeagueCB25200959%100.040.07156214951.23
2021/22West Ham UnitedPremier LeagueCB1396228%010.090.06151315801.17
2020/21West Ham UnitedPremier LeagueCB18137940%200.130.11158916001.19
2019/20West Ham UnitedPremier LeagueCB32276681%310.130.12159814861.14
2018/19West Ham UnitedPremier LeagueCB33297087%100.030.04152915531.22
2017/18FC ToulouseLigue 1CB34306089%310.120.14144813520.85
2016/17FC ToulouseLigue 1CB30270079%220.130.13144414030.88
2015/16FC ToulouseLigue 1CB21186154%100.050.07143913800.78

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Fa CupFulham FC218000—
2025/26World CupMorocco218000—
2024/25Fa CupFulham FC211400—
2023/24Fa CupFulham FC216100—
2022/23Fa CupFulham FC327001—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueWest Ham United7541101481
2021/22Fa CupWest Ham United322601—
2020/21Fa CupWest Ham United212000—
2019/20Fa CupWest Ham United218000—
2018/19Fa CupWest Ham United218000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Joel Ward
Premier League · 2019
30€4.0M€2.5Mfell
Fabián Balbuena
Premier League · 2021
30€5.0M€4.0Mfell
Arthur Masuaku
Premier League · 2021
28€7.0M€6.0Mflat
Fabian Schär
Premier League · 2021
30€9.0M€10.0Mflat
Scott Dann
Premier League · 2019
32€4.0M€1.5Mfell
Ryan Fredericks
Premier League · 2019
27€5.0M€2.5Mfell
Jonny Otto
Premier League · 2023
29€13.0M€3.0Mfell
Victor Lindelöf
Premier League · 2024
30€15.0M€5.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
10 Aug 2022West HamFulham€17.8M€10.0M
1 Jul 2018ToulouseWest Ham€25.0M€22.0M
1 Jan 2016Toulouse U19ToulouseUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Toulouse FC U17Toulouse U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Toulouse For.Toulouse FC U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2006SC Balma JugendToulouse For.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.