
Issa Diop
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Issa Diop's performance-implied value at EUR 7.9M-16.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.0M-7.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-6.7M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 88.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.0M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 814 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1576
- Opponent strength
- 1619
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €6.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts; relative output up 169% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -64% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 814 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fulham FC | Premier League | CB | 13 | 814 | 24% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1619 | 1576 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Fulham FC | Premier League | CB | 21 | 1335 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1580 | 1555 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Fulham FC | Premier League | CB | 18 | 1425 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1597 | 1524 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Fulham FC | Premier League | CB | 25 | 2009 | 59% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1562 | 1495 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | West Ham United | Premier League | CB | 13 | 962 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1513 | 1580 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | West Ham United | Premier League | CB | 18 | 1379 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1589 | 1600 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | West Ham United | Premier League | CB | 32 | 2766 | 81% | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 1598 | 1486 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | West Ham United | Premier League | CB | 33 | 2970 | 87% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1529 | 1553 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CB | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 1448 | 1352 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CB | 30 | 2700 | 79% | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1444 | 1403 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CB | 21 | 1861 | 54% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1439 | 1380 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Morocco | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 2 | 114 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 2 | 161 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | West Ham United | 7 | 541 | 1 | 0 | 1481 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 226 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 2 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Ward Premier League · 2019 | 30 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Fabián Balbuena Premier League · 2021 | 30 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Arthur Masuaku Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Fabian Schär Premier League · 2021 | 30 | €9.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Scott Dann Premier League · 2019 | 32 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ryan Fredericks Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Jonny Otto Premier League · 2023 | 29 | €13.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Victor Lindelöf Premier League · 2024 | 30 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2022 | West Ham | Fulham | €17.8M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Toulouse | West Ham | €25.0M | €22.0M |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Toulouse U19 | Toulouse | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Toulouse FC U17 | Toulouse U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Toulouse For. | Toulouse FC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | SC Balma Jugend | Toulouse For. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.