David Brooks
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David Brooks's performance-implied value at EUR 11.2M-24.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.3M-13.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.6M-9.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (1199 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €9.9M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1199 (35% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1643
- Opponent strength
- 1604
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.6M – €9.9M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+60 Elo); relative output up 47% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -70% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1199 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | RW | 31 | 1199 | 35% | 1 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.37 | 1604 | 1643 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | RW | 29 | 948 | 28% | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.28 | 1567 | 1582 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | RW | 13 | 273 | 8% | 1 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.58 | 1591 | 1496 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | RW | 6 | 172 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1557 | 1425 | 1.23 |
| 2019/20 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | RW | 9 | 511 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.48 | 1625 | 1415 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | RW | 30 | 2279 | 67% | 7 | 5 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 1523 | 1495 | 1.22 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 71 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 4 | 213 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 116 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Murphy Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €15.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Danny Welbeck Premier League · 2018 | 28 | €15.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Anthony Martial Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €15.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Chory Castro Laliga · 2014 | 30 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Hakim Ziyech Premier League · 2023 | 30 | €16.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Lucas Alario Bundesliga · 2020 | 28 | €13.5M | €8.0M | fell |
| Ryan Fraser Premier League · 2022 | 28 | €10.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| André Schürrle Bundesliga · 2018 | 28 | €15.0M | €4.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2024 | Southampton | Bournemouth | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 30 Jan 2024 | Bournemouth | Southampton | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sheff Utd | Bournemouth | €11.3M | €5.0M |
| 28 Sept 2015 | Halifax Town | Sheff Utd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 29 Aug 2015 | Sheff Utd | Halifax Town | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sheff Utd U18 | Sheff Utd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Man City U18 | Sheff Utd U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Man City Youth | Man City U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.