Sebastiano Luperto

30 yrs · Centre-back · Italy
US Cremonese · Serie A · Foot: left · Height: 191 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
21/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€4.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€1.7M – €4.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.5M – €9.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.4M – €3.5M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€639k – €7.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.7M – €4.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.5M – €9.4M
Projected value (24 months)€1.4M – €3.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Sebastiano Luperto's performance-implied value at EUR 3.5M-9.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 21

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average74.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.8 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €2.9M vs market €4.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-44% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
3017 (88% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.06
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.09
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
75 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1343
Opponent strength
1526
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.4M – €3.5M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 38% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -64% (IQR -73% to -26%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Cagliari CalcioSerie ACB19170750%100.050.09152613760.93
2025/26US CremoneseSerie ACB15131038%010.070.11150312990.93
2024/25Cagliari CalcioSerie ACB36324095%130.110.15150413680.99
2023/24FC EmpoliSerie ACB383407100%110.050.07149213880.98
2022/23FC EmpoliSerie ACB36313892%200.060.08148113880.94
2021/22FC EmpoliSerie ACB24195857%020.090.13150513310.89
2020/21FC CrotoneSerie ACB23188455%000.000.03147812530.90
2019/20SSC NapoliSerie ACB952415%000.000.03141115880.82
2018/19SSC NapoliSerie ACB1272521%000.000.02137516360.78
2014/15SSC NapoliSerie ACB170%000.000.05149416150.93

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupCagliari Calcio218000—
2024/25Italy CupCagliari Calcio18301—
2023/24Italy CupFC Empoli19000—
2022/23Italy CupFC Empoli112000—
2021/22Italy CupFC Empoli14500—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueSSC Napoli2135001694
2019/20Italy CupSSC Napoli16800—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueSSC Napoli3138001585
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueSSC Napoli111001480

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Gautier Lloris
Ligue 1 · 2024
29€3.0M€3.0Mflat
Daniele Gastaldello
Serie A · 2013
30€3.6M€1.0Mfell
Xandão
Premier Liga · 2016
28€3.0M€700kfell
Bakaye Dibassy
Ligue 1 · 2019
30€3.0M€2.0Mfell
Alejandro Catena
Laliga · 2023
29€8.0M€3.0Mfell
Oswaldo Vizcarrondo
Ligue 1 · 2015
31€2.5M€500kfell
Alfonso Espino
Laliga · 2023
31€3.5M€1.2Mfell
Andreas Granqvist
Serie A · 2013
28€6.5M€8.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
2 Feb 2026CagliariCremonese€4.6M€4.0M
8 Jul 2024FC EmpoliCagliari€3.5M€3.5M
1 Jul 2023NapoliFC Empoli€2.5M€3.0M
30 Jun 2023FC EmpoliNapoliFree / loan€3.0M
18 Jul 2022NapoliFC EmpoliFree / loan€3.0M
30 Jun 2022FC EmpoliNapoliFree / loan€3.0M
13 Aug 2021NapoliFC EmpoliFree / loan€2.2M
30 Jun 2021CrotoneNapoliFree / loan€2.2M
5 Oct 2020NapoliCrotoneFree / loan€3.5M
30 Jun 2018FC EmpoliNapoliFree / loan€2.0M
3 Aug 2017NapoliFC EmpoliFree / loan€1.0M
30 Jun 2017Pro VercelliNapoliFree / loan€1.0M
26 Aug 2016NapoliPro VercelliFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2015Napoli U19NapoliUnknown€150k
1 Jul 2014Lecce U19Napoli U19€490k€100k
30 Jun 2014Napoli U19Lecce U19Free / loan€100k
23 Aug 2013Lecce U19Napoli U19Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.