Lucas Hernández
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Hernández's performance-implied value at EUR 12.6M-22.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.6M-17.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.5M-10.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €12.1M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -64% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1746 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1818
- Opponent strength
- 1438
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.5M – €10.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 28 pts; role change CB -> LB; relative output up 130% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -73% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1746 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | LB | 25 | 1746 | 57% | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 1438 | 1817 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 16 | 875 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1386 | 1812 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | LB | 27 | 1915 | 63% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 1487 | 1700 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | LB | 7 | 478 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1467 | 1817 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 25 | 2039 | 67% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 1500 | 1847 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | LB | 23 | 1600 | 52% | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 1513 | 1898 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | LB | 19 | 914 | 30% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 1470 | 1892 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 14 | 1118 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 1537 | 1736 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | LB | 27 | 2115 | 62% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1527 | 1768 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 15 | 1253 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1489 | 1792 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 10 | 835 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1511 | 1829 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 10 | 235 | 0 | 0 | 1702 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 1662 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 11 | 842 | 1 | 0 | 1685 |
| 2023/24 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1397 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 2 | 174 | 1 | 0 | 1717 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1663 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 8 | 571 | 0 | 0 | 1643 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 10 | 693 | 1 | 0 | 1664 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Super Cup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 1722 |
| 2020/21 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1687 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 3 | 155 | 0 | 1 | 1558 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 3 | 51 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1600 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Super Cup | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1885 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 82 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Atlético de Madrid | 8 | 613 | 0 | 1 | 1584 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 495 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | 1755 |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 356 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 305 | 0 | 0 | 1759 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 222 | 0 | 0 | 1879 |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medhi Benatia Serie A · 2018 | 31 | €23.0M | €4.8M | fell |
| Kwadwo Asamoah Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €11.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Daniel Carvajal Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Thomas Meunier Ligue 1 · 2020 | 29 | €24.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Javi Martínez Bundesliga · 2017 | 29 | €30.0M | €27.0M | flat |
| Nacho Monreal Premier League · 2015 | 29 | €12.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Jérôme Boateng Bundesliga · 2018 | 30 | €45.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Nacho Fernández Laliga · 2021 | 31 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2023 | Bayern Munich | PSG | €45.0M | €45.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Atlético | Bayern Munich | €80.0M | €70.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Atl. Madrileño | Atlético | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Atl. Madrid U19 | Atl. Madrileño | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Atl. Madrid U17 | Atl. Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Atlético Yth. | Atl. Madrid U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Majad. Youth | Atlético Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.