Maximilian Mittelstädt
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maximilian Mittelstädt's performance-implied value at EUR 9.1M-19.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.0M-17.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.8M-11.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €11.7M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -64% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2189 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1567
- Opponent strength
- 1482
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.8M – €11.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -54% to -21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | LB | 32 | 2189 | 72% | 6 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.24 | 1482 | 1567 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | LB | 31 | 2476 | 81% | 1 | 8 | 0.33 | 0.19 | 1479 | 1531 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | LB | 31 | 2102 | 69% | 2 | 4 | 0.26 | 0.21 | 1525 | 1637 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | LB | 17 | 844 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1532 | 1354 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | LM | 24 | 1496 | 49% | 0 | 5 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 1552 | 1385 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | LB | 27 | 1800 | 59% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1556 | 1446 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | LB | 26 | 1884 | 62% | 1 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 1523 | 1469 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | LM | 25 | 1804 | 59% | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 1559 | 1472 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | LM | 11 | 422 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1449 | 1468 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | LB | 12 | 461 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 1514 | 1455 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | LB | 3 | 181 | 6% | 0 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 1659 | 1457 | 1.02 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | VfB Stuttgart | 11 | 848 | 1 | 1 | 1456 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 487 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1760 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 707 | 0 | 3 | 1633 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 315 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 1761 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 170 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 2 | 141 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 3 | 217 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Hertha BSC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 3 | 1491 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chancel Mbemba Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €15.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Rafael Tolói Serie A · 2018 | 28 | €11.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Gökhan Gönül Super Lig · 2013 | 28 | €8.5M | €8.0M | flat |
| Ryan Bertrand Premier League · 2017 | 28 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Iñigo Martínez Laliga · 2022 | 31 | €25.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Gianluca Mancini Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €25.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Dusan Basta Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €8.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Camilo Zúñiga Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Hertha BSC | Stuttgart | €500k | €2.0M |
| 19 Aug 2015 | Hertha BSC U19 | Hertha BSC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Hertha BSC U17 | Hertha BSC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Hertha BSC Yth. | Hertha BSC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Zehlendorf Yth. | Hertha BSC Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | SC Staaken Yth. | Zehlendorf Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.