Moritz Nicolas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Moritz Nicolas's performance-implied value at EUR 3.1M-9.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.1M-10.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-9.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.7th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.0M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €9.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 46 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -51% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1493 | 1422 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | GK | 19 | 1640 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1508 | 1427 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | GK | 27 | 2430 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1501 | 1435 | 1.01 |
| 2019/20 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1531 | 1434 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrián San Miguel Premier League · 2015 | 28 | €6.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Marvin Schwäbe Bundesliga · 2023 | 28 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mattia Perin Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Koen Casteels Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €6.0M | €10.5M | rose |
| Fernando Pacheco Laliga · 2021 | 29 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| David Soria Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Salvatore Sirigu Serie A · 2018 | 31 | €6.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Matz Sels Ligue 1 · 2019 | 27 | €7.0M | €6.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2023 | Roda JC | Mönchengladbach | Free / loan | €350k |
| 17 Aug 2022 | Mönchengladbach | Roda JC | Free / loan | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Viktoria Köln | Mönchengladbach | Free / loan | €350k |
| 15 Jul 2021 | Mönchengladbach | Viktoria Köln | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | VfL Osnabrück | Mönchengladbach | Free / loan | €250k |
| 15 Aug 2020 | Mönchengladbach | VfL Osnabrück | Free / loan | €250k |
| 14 Aug 2020 | Union Berlin | Mönchengladbach | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Mönchengladbach | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | M'gladbach II | Mönchengladbach | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | RW Essen | M'gladbach II | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | RW Essen U17 | RW Essen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Rot-Weiss Essen | RW Essen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | VfB Hüls Yth. | Rot-Weiss Essen | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | SV Zweckel Jgd. | VfB Hüls Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.