Ludovic Blas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ludovic Blas's performance-implied value at EUR 4.7M-9.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.5M-8.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-8.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.38x the positional average in the league (1542 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.6M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1542 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1440
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €8.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; team strength up (+69 Elo); role change RW -> RM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -56% to -28%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1542 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RM | 32 | 1542 | 50% | 5 | 4 | 0.53 | 0.30 | 1440 | 1520 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RW | 29 | 2302 | 75% | 6 | 9 | 0.59 | 0.48 | 1470 | 1450 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RW | 29 | 1564 | 51% | 4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 1478 | 1507 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | AM | 37 | 2818 | 82% | 7 | 5 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 1445 | 1349 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | AM | 35 | 2977 | 87% | 10 | 5 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 1429 | 1457 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | AM | 36 | 2802 | 82% | 10 | 5 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 1435 | 1376 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | RM | 24 | 1858 | 74% | 5 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 1440 | 1414 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | EA Guingamp | Ligue 1 | CM | 34 | 2376 | 69% | 1 | 6 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 1454 | 1296 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | EA Guingamp | Ligue 1 | AM | 31 | 1783 | 52% | 3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 1463 | 1393 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | EA Guingamp | Ligue 1 | AM | 24 | 1150 | 34% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 1389 | 1398 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | EA Guingamp | Ligue 1 | AM | 14 | 640 | 19% | 1 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.45 | 1458 | 1385 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 8 | 367 | 3 | 0 | 1514 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | FC Nantes | 8 | 675 | 3 | 3 | 1540 |
| 2022/23 | Trophee Des Champions | FC Nantes | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1714 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Roca Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €9.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Josuha Guilavogui Bundesliga · 2019 | 29 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Giacomo Bonaventura Serie A · 2017 | 28 | €24.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Younousse Sankharé Ligue 1 · 2018 | 29 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Senad Lulic Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €14.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Bibars Natcho Premier Liga · 2016 | 28 | €10.0M | €4.8M | fell |
| Adem Ljajic Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €13.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Mauricio Isla Ligue 1 · 2016 | 28 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2023 | FC Nantes | Stade Rennais | €15.0M | €20.0M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Guingamp | FC Nantes | €8.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | EA Guingamp B | Guingamp | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | EA Guingamp U17 | EA Guingamp B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Montrouge U17 | EA Guingamp U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Montrouge Jgd | Montrouge U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.