
Metehan Mimaroğlu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Metehan Mimaroğlu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.49x the positional average in the league (1974 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €118k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1974 (65% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.46
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.61
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1161
- Opponent strength
- 1271
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €193k – €369k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -48% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü | Super Lig | LW | 32 | 1974 | 65% | 6 | 4 | 0.46 | 0.61 | 1271 | 1160 | 0.40 |
| 2022/23 | Ümraniyespor | Super Lig | LW | 10 | 271 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1306 | 1164 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | LW | 9 | 202 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1218 | 1273 | 0.42 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bashkim Kadrii Superliga · 2023 | 32 | €400k | €450k | flat |
| Nikolaos Karelis Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Reinaldo Lenis Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €450k | €150k | fell |
| Ognjen Ozegovic Super League 1 · 2024 | 30 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Carlitos Super League 1 · 2024 | 34 | €250k | €150k | fell |
| Ziguy Badibanga Premier Liga · 2023 | 32 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Denis Epstein Super League 1 · 2017 | 31 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Nikolaos Kaltsas Super League 1 · 2024 | 34 | €300k | €125k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Genclerbirligi | Without Club | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Eyüpspor | Genclerbirligi | Unknown | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Bandirma Spor | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €500k |
| 15 Jul 2023 | Eyüpspor | Bandirma Spor | Free / loan | €375k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Altinordu | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €375k |
| 12 Jan 2023 | Eyüpspor | Altinordu | Free / loan | €475k |
| 5 Jan 2023 | Ümraniyespor | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €475k |
| 3 Aug 2022 | Eyüpspor | Ümraniyespor | Free / loan | €525k |
| 1 Aug 2022 | Adana Demirspor | Eyüpspor | Unknown | €525k |
| 16 Jul 2021 | Altinordu | Adana Demirspor | €397k | €875k |
| 9 Jan 2020 | Osmaniyespor FK | Altinordu | €8k | Data unavailable |
| 21 Aug 2019 | Alibeyköy | Osmaniyespor FK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 23 Jan 2019 | Eyüpspor | Alibeyköy | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 22 Jan 2019 | Alibeyköy | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Eyüpspor | Alibeyköy | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2018 | Ergene Velimese | Eyüpspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 27 Jul 2017 | Edirnespor | Ergene Velimese | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 22 Jan 2016 | Konyaalti Bld | Edirnespor | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 6 Feb 2015 | I. Güngörenspor | Konyaalti Bld | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 21 Jan 2014 | Bursa Nilüfer | I. Güngörenspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2013 | Eskisehir U21 | Bursa Nilüfer | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 29 Aug 2012 | I. Güngören U21 | Eskisehir U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.