Metehan Mimaroğlu

32 yrs · Left winger · Türkiye
Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 178 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€400k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€89k – €286k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€339k – €640k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€193k – €369k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€53k – €552k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€89k – €286k
Model value (performance-implied)€339k – €640k
Projected value (24 months)€193k – €369k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Metehan Mimaroğlu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.49x the positional average in the league (1974 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 84

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average10.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €118k vs market €400k
Expected appreciationVery low-28% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €925k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1974 (65% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.46
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.61
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
11 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1161
Opponent strength
1271
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€193k – €369k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -48% to -23%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
53 (ATT)
Relative output kept
79%–133%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
58%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Gençlerbirliği Spor KulübüSuper LigLW32197465%640.460.61127111600.40
2022/23ÜmraniyesporSuper LigLW102718%000.000.42130611640.50
2021/22Adana DemirsporSuper LigLW92026%000.000.32121812730.42

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Bashkim Kadrii
Superliga · 2023
32€400k€450kflat
Nikolaos Karelis
Super League 1 · 2023
31€800k€450kfell
Reinaldo Lenis
Super League 1 · 2022
30€450k€150kfell
Ognjen Ozegovic
Super League 1 · 2024
30€600k€450kfell
Carlitos
Super League 1 · 2024
34€250k€150kfell
Ziguy Badibanga
Premier Liga · 2023
32€300k€250kflat
Denis Epstein
Super League 1 · 2017
31€400k€250kfell
Nikolaos Kaltsas
Super League 1 · 2024
34€300k€125kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026GenclerbirligiWithout ClubUnknown€400k
1 Jul 2024EyüpsporGenclerbirligiUnknown€500k
30 Jun 2024Bandirma SporEyüpsporFree / loan€500k
15 Jul 2023EyüpsporBandirma SporFree / loan€375k
30 Jun 2023AltinorduEyüpsporFree / loan€375k
12 Jan 2023EyüpsporAltinorduFree / loan€475k
5 Jan 2023ÜmraniyesporEyüpsporFree / loan€475k
3 Aug 2022EyüpsporÜmraniyesporFree / loan€525k
1 Aug 2022Adana DemirsporEyüpsporUnknown€525k
16 Jul 2021AltinorduAdana Demirspor€397k€875k
9 Jan 2020Osmaniyespor FKAltinordu€8kData unavailable
21 Aug 2019AlibeyköyOsmaniyespor FKUnknownData unavailable
23 Jan 2019EyüpsporAlibeyköyUnknownData unavailable
22 Jan 2019AlibeyköyEyüpsporFree / loanData unavailable
31 Aug 2018EyüpsporAlibeyköyFree / loanData unavailable
1 Aug 2018Ergene VelimeseEyüpsporUnknownData unavailable
27 Jul 2017EdirnesporErgene VelimeseFree / loanData unavailable
22 Jan 2016Konyaalti BldEdirnesporFree / loanData unavailable
6 Feb 2015I. GüngörensporKonyaalti BldFree / loanData unavailable
21 Jan 2014Bursa NilüferI. GüngörensporUnknownData unavailable
1 Feb 2013Eskisehir U21Bursa NilüferUnknownData unavailable
29 Aug 2012I. Güngören U21Eskisehir U21Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.