
Brais Méndez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Brais Méndez's performance-implied value at EUR 3.0M-7.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.7M-9.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-5.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.34x the positional average in the league (1671 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 11
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 76.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.6M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1671 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.54
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1462
- Opponent strength
- 1471
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.3M – €5.8M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 80% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -62% (IQR -65% to -51%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1671 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | AM | 29 | 1671 | 49% | 6 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.54 | 1471 | 1462 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | AM | 27 | 1540 | 45% | 3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 1494 | 1464 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | AM | 32 | 2419 | 71% | 5 | 6 | 0.41 | 0.35 | 1481 | 1588 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CM | 34 | 2416 | 71% | 8 | 4 | 0.45 | 0.34 | 1500 | 1604 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | RM | 37 | 3037 | 89% | 4 | 5 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 1526 | 1499 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | RM | 34 | 2679 | 78% | 9 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.32 | 1567 | 1535 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | RM | 31 | 1473 | 43% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.25 | 1563 | 1479 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | RW | 31 | 2351 | 69% | 6 | 7 | 0.50 | 0.52 | 1539 | 1494 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | RW | 20 | 949 | 28% | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.35 | 1595 | 1523 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 2 | 148 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 12 | 879 | 2 | 3 | 1517 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 5 | 323 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Real Sociedad | 7 | 532 | 3 | 1 | 1705 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 5 | 367 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 8 | 535 | 2 | 1 | 1540 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 5 | 308 | 1 | 3 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 3 | 173 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 97 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 3 | 167 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 4 | 218 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Zuber Bundesliga · 2019 | 28 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ruslan Malinovskyi Serie A · 2024 | 31 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Éver Banega Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €16.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Robert Skov Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| James Morrison Premier League · 2017 | 31 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Foued Kadir Ligue 1 · 2013 | 30 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Florian Neuhaus Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Nadiem Amiri Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €7.0M | €17.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2022 | Celta de Vigo | Real Sociedad | €14.0M | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Celta Vigo B | Celta de Vigo | Unknown | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Celta U19 | Celta Vigo B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.