Brais Méndez

29 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also CM, RM, RW) · Spain
Real Sociedad · Laliga · Foot: left · Height: 187 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€8.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€3.7M – €9.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.0M – €7.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.3M – €5.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€6.2M – €3.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€3.7M – €9.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.0M – €7.5M
Projected value (24 months)€2.3M – €5.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Brais Méndez's performance-implied value at EUR 3.0M-7.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.7M-9.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-5.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.34x the positional average in the league (1671 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 11

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh76.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €5.6M vs market €8.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-52% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €40.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1671 (49% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.43
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.54
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
76 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1462
Opponent strength
1471
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.3M – €5.8M

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 80% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -62% (IQR -65% to -51%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1671 league minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Real SociedadLaligaAM29167149%620.430.54147114620.95
2024/25Real SociedadLaligaAM27154045%320.290.29149414640.95
2023/24Real SociedadLaligaAM32241971%560.410.35148115881.00
2022/23Real SociedadLaligaCM34241671%840.450.34150016040.98
2021/22Celta de VigoLaligaRM37303789%450.270.32152614991.05
2020/21Celta de VigoLaligaRM34267978%900.300.32156715351.10
2019/20Celta de VigoLaligaRM31147343%020.120.25156314791.16
2018/19Celta de VigoLaligaRW31235169%670.500.52153914941.14
2017/18Celta de VigoLaligaRW2094928%110.190.35159515231.11

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad214800—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueReal Sociedad12879231517
2024/25Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad532330—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueReal Sociedad7532311705
2023/24Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad536702—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueReal Sociedad8535211540
2022/23Copa Del ReyReal Sociedad530813—
2021/22Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo317311—
2020/21Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo29700—
2019/20Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo316711—
2018/19Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo14500—
2017/18Copa Del ReyCelta de Vigo421800—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Steven Zuber
Bundesliga · 2019
28€7.0M€2.5Mfell
Ruslan Malinovskyi
Serie A · 2024
31€8.0M€2.5Mfell
Éver Banega
Serie A · 2017
29€16.0M€15.0Mflat
Robert Skov
Bundesliga · 2024
28€5.0M€2.0Mfell
James Morrison
Premier League · 2017
31€5.0M€1.5Mfell
Foued Kadir
Ligue 1 · 2013
30€3.0M€1.2Mfell
Florian Neuhaus
Bundesliga · 2024
27€7.0M€2.5Mfell
Nadiem Amiri
Bundesliga · 2024
28€7.0M€17.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
6 Jul 2022Celta de VigoReal Sociedad€14.0M€18.0M
1 Jul 2018Celta Vigo BCelta de VigoUnknown€3.5M
1 Jul 2016Celta U19Celta Vigo BUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.