Samuel Ballet
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Samuel Ballet's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-3.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.17x the positional average in the league (1720 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 95
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €712k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1720 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.31
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1139
- Opponent strength
- 1299
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €941k – €3.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -38% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1720 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | RW | 24 | 1720 | 56% | 5 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.46 | 1299 | 1139 | 0.40 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marius Mouandilmadji Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €1.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| David Min Eredivisie · 2024 | 25 | €800k | €1.5M | rose |
| Maximiliano Lovera Super League 1 · 2023 | 24 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Benjamin Tetteh Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €2.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Valon Ethemi Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Braian Samudio Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Renaldo Cephas Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €1.3M | €900k | fell |
| Thievy Bifouma Super Lig · 2020 | 28 | €2.0M | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sept 2025 | Como | Antalyaspor | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | FC Zürich | Como | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Como | FC Zürich | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 28 Jan 2024 | FC Winterthur | Como | €1.9M | €1.4M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | BSC YB U21 | FC Winterthur | Unknown | €350k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | FC Winterthur | BSC YB U21 | Free / loan | €350k |
| 5 Jan 2021 | BSC YB U21 | FC Winterthur | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 Dec 2020 | FC Wil 1900 | BSC YB U21 | Free / loan | €150k |
| 12 Aug 2020 | BSC YB U21 | FC Wil 1900 | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | BSC YB U18 | BSC YB U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | BSC YB U17 | BSC YB U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.