Scott McTominay

29 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · Scotland
SSC Napoli · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 193 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
17/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€40.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€16.4M – €38.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€24.4M – €72.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€12.6M – €27.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€14.3M – €55.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€16.4M – €38.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€24.4M – €72.2M
Projected value (24 months)€12.6M – €27.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€40.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Scott McTominay's performance-implied value at EUR 24.4M-72.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.4M-38.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.6M-27.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.19x the positional average in the league (2793 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 17

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite97.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.6 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €25.2M vs market €40.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-54% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €50.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2793 (82% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.42
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.26
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
98 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1618
Opponent strength
1493
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€12.6M – €27.4M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 31% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -67% to -38%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SSC NapoliSerie ACM33279382%1030.420.26149316180.93
2024/25SSC NapoliSerie ACM34294186%1260.550.37149816600.99
2024/25Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCM2170%000.000.18153416031.23
2023/24Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCM32189255%710.380.27159015941.14
2022/23Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueDM24115134%100.080.08160616991.23
2021/22Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueDM30239170%110.080.07158716091.17
2020/21Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueDM32212862%410.210.13159017411.19
2019/20Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCM27177152%410.250.23159817201.14
2018/19Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCM1686225%200.210.14148316691.22
2017/18Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCM1362918%000.000.08152217471.15
2016/17Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCM2963%000.000.13147016941.07

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueSSC Napoli8699411594
2025/26World CupScotland327000—
2025/26Supercoppa ItalianaSSC Napoli2180001636
2025/26Italy CupSSC Napoli12900—
2024/25Community ShieldManchester United132001893
2024/25Italy CupSSC Napoli23110—
2023/24Fa CupManchester United650221—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United5381111607
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United7131101521
2022/23Fa CupManchester United411600—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United5400001664
2021/22Fa CupManchester United221010—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United6540011612
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United5342001710
2020/21Fa CupManchester United425320—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United7425101560
2019/20Fa CupManchester United216800—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United3270001878
2018/19Fa CupManchester United39500—
2017/18Fa CupManchester United327000—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United4204001580

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Luis Alberto
Serie A · 2021
29€45.0M€18.0Mfell
Cesc Fàbregas
Premier League · 2016
29€45.0M€30.0Mfell
Filip Kostić
Bundesliga · 2022
30€24.0M€6.5Mfell
Yaya Touré
Premier League · 2013
30€36.0M€22.0Mfell
Adrien Rabiot
Serie A · 2024
29€35.0M€18.0Mfell
Radja Nainggolan
Serie A · 2018
30€45.0M€16.0Mfell
Nabil Fekir
Laliga · 2022
29€40.0M€10.0Mfell
Piotr Zielinski
Serie A · 2021
27€50.0M€35.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Aug 2024Man UtdNapoli€30.5M€32.0M
1 Jul 2017Man Utd U23Man UtdUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Man Utd U18Man Utd U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Man Utd YouthMan Utd U18UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Scott McTominay · MoneyballAI