Adrian Semper
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adrian Semper's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €736k vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2250 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1260
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €796k – €2.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -23% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Pisa Sporting Club | Serie A | GK | 25 | 2250 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1493 | 1260 | 0.93 |
| 2021/22 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1396 | 1325 | 0.89 |
| 2018/19 | Chievo Verona | Serie A | GK | 6 | 540 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1419 | 1208 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Pisa Sporting Club | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Chievo Verona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mamadou Samassa Ligue 1 · 2018 | 28 | €2.5M | €2.4M | flat |
| Paul Nardi Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Christian Mathenia Bundesliga · 2019 | 27 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Gauthier Gallon Ligue 1 · 2023 | 30 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Leandro Chichizola Laliga · 2018 | 28 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Johann Carrasso Ligue 1 · 2015 | 27 | €1.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ivan Provedel Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €3.5M | €14.0M | rose |
| Dmitriy Khomich Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €650k | €600k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2024 | Como | Pisa | €2.3M | €2.5M |
| 12 Jul 2023 | Genoa | Como | €1.5M | €1.2M |
| 11 Aug 2021 | Chievo Verona | Genoa | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Dinamo Zagreb | Chievo Verona | €1.5M | €1.0M |
| 31 Aug 2020 | Chievo Verona | Dinamo Zagreb | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 9 Aug 2018 | Dinamo Zagreb | Chievo Verona | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | NK Lokomotiva | Dinamo Zagreb | Free / loan | €800k |
| 10 Feb 2017 | Dinamo Zagreb | NK Lokomotiva | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Din. Zagreb II | Dinamo Zagreb | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 18 Jan 2016 | Din. Zagreb U19 | Din. Zagreb II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Din. Zagreb U17 | Din. Zagreb U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | D. Zagreb Yth. | Din. Zagreb U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.