Marcus Thuram
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marcus Thuram's performance-implied value at EUR 43.4M-92.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 31.3M-57.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.5M-32.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.97x the positional average in the league (1913 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €42.3M vs market €50.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1913 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.89
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 98 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1722
- Opponent strength
- 1502
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.5M – €32.7M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-96 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -63% to -36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Inter Milan | Serie A | ST | 29 | 1913 | 56% | 13 | 6 | 0.89 | 0.49 | 1502 | 1722 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Inter Milan | Serie A | ST | 32 | 2299 | 67% | 14 | 7 | 0.82 | 0.41 | 1497 | 1819 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Inter Milan | Serie A | ST | 35 | 2707 | 79% | 13 | 13 | 0.86 | 0.46 | 1477 | 1802 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | ST | 30 | 2518 | 82% | 13 | 6 | 0.68 | 0.61 | 1513 | 1499 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | ST | 21 | 953 | 31% | 3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 1488 | 1535 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LW | 29 | 1738 | 57% | 8 | 7 | 0.78 | 0.48 | 1510 | 1581 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LW | 31 | 2228 | 73% | 10 | 8 | 0.73 | 0.55 | 1532 | 1604 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | EA Guingamp | Ligue 1 | LW | 32 | 2582 | 75% | 9 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.52 | 1475 | 1296 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | EA Guingamp | Ligue 1 | ST | 32 | 1926 | 56% | 3 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.43 | 1477 | 1393 | 0.85 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 9 | 577 | 2 | 1 | 1638 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 238 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 1583 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | France | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 14 | 953 | 4 | 2 | 1726 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1770 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 8 | 458 | 1 | 1 | 1658 |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 2 | 155 | 1 | 0 | 1619 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 180 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 602 | 2 | 4 | 1715 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 175 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6 | 520 | 2 | 1 | 1484 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 153 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro Morata Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €45.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Wayne Rooney Premier League · 2013 | 28 | €65.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Diego Perotti Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €17.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Ángel Correa Laliga · 2022 | 27 | €45.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Sergio Agüero Premier League · 2017 | 29 | €65.0M | €65.0M | flat |
| Duván Zapata Serie A · 2021 | 30 | €33.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Mauro Icardi Ligue 1 · 2020 | 27 | €60.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Óscar Cardozo Liga Portugal · 2013 | 30 | €17.5M | €6.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Mönchengladbach | Inter | Free / loan | €32.0M |
| 22 Jul 2019 | Guingamp | Mönchengladbach | €9.0M | €9.0M |
| 5 Jul 2017 | FC Sochaux | Guingamp | €600k | €600k |
| 15 Mar 2015 | FC Sochaux B | FC Sochaux | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | FC Sochaux U19 | FC Sochaux B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | ACBB Youth | FC Sochaux U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.