Mauro Icardi

The model rates Mauro Icardi's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-4.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-5.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-3.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (1313 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1313 (43% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

1.03

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.42

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

66 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.40 (rank 18)

Team strength (Elo)

1501

Opponent strength

1228

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

improving

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€874k – €3.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts; relative output up 33% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -78% (IQR -83% to -66%).

• ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
• ⚠Limited sample: 1313 league minutes last season.
• ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
• ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

53 (ATT)

Relative output kept

79%–133%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

58%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.