Pedro Amaral

29 yrs · Left-back (also LM) · Portugal
GD Estoril Praia · Liga Portugal · Foot: left · Height: 178 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€567k – €2.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€505k – €1.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€812k – €2.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.7M – €496k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€567k – €2.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€505k – €1.1M
Projected value (24 months)€812k – €2.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Pedro Amaral's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 40

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage36.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.8 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.4M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-37% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1855 (61% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.10
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.14
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
36 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1305
Opponent strength
1334
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€812k – €2.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; role change LM -> LB; relative output up 43% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -64% to -43%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26GD Estoril PraiaLiga PortugalLB27185561%020.100.14133413050.58
2024/25GD Estoril PraiaLiga PortugalLM29240178%020.070.14133413020.51
2023/24PAS Lamia 1964Super League 1LB1497442%120.280.26125211630.42
2022/23Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalLM1298932%120.270.31145213290.68
2020/21Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalLB29177058%010.050.07133813200.61
2019/20Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalLB1367722%000.000.07137214120.59
2018/19Panetolikos AgrinioSuper League 1LB16107340%020.170.21131411990.43

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Kypello ElladasPAS Lamia 196419001—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Federico Ricca
Jupiler Pro League · 2024
30€1.8M€800kfell
Ousmane Viera
Super Lig · 2016
30€2.0M€550kfell
Sandy Walsh
Jupiler Pro League · 2023
28€2.0M€800kfell
Robert Bauer
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
27€1.5M€800kfell
Konstantinos Laifis
Jupiler Pro League · 2024
31€1.5M€900kfell
Markus Berger
Premier Liga · 2014
29€1.7M€350kfell
Eli Dasa
Premier Liga · 2023
31€1.8M€1.0Mfell
Fabiano
Liga Portugal · 2020
29€1.0M€700kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026EstorilWithout ClubUnknown€2.0M
9 Jul 2024PAS LamiaEstorilFree / loan€700k
26 Sept 2023Without ClubPAS LamiaUnknown€700k
1 Jul 2023Al-KhaleejWithout ClubUnknown€700k
19 Jan 2023Rio AveAl-Khaleej€1.0M€750k
4 Jul 2019Benfica BRio AveUnknown€800k
30 Jun 2019PanetolikosBenfica BFree / loan€800k
9 Jan 2019Benfica BPanetolikosFree / loan€900k
1 Jul 2016Benfica U19Benfica BUnknownData unavailable
30 Jun 2015Casa Pia U19Benfica U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Aug 2014Benfica U19Casa Pia U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Benfica U17Benfica U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Benfica U15Benfica U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Benfica YthBenfica U15UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Lourel FormaçãoBenfica YthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Pedro Amaral · MoneyballAI