
Pedro Amaral
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pedro Amaral's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1855 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1305
- Opponent strength
- 1334
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €812k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; role change LM -> LB; relative output up 43% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -64% to -43%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | LB | 27 | 1855 | 61% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 1334 | 1305 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | LM | 29 | 2401 | 78% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 1334 | 1302 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | PAS Lamia 1964 | Super League 1 | LB | 14 | 974 | 42% | 1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 1252 | 1163 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | LM | 12 | 989 | 32% | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.31 | 1452 | 1329 | 0.68 |
| 2020/21 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | LB | 29 | 1770 | 58% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1338 | 1320 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | LB | 13 | 677 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1372 | 1412 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | LB | 16 | 1073 | 40% | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 1314 | 1199 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | PAS Lamia 1964 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Ricca Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 30 | €1.8M | €800k | fell |
| Ousmane Viera Super Lig · 2016 | 30 | €2.0M | €550k | fell |
| Sandy Walsh Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 28 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Robert Bauer Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 27 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Konstantinos Laifis Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 31 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
| Markus Berger Premier Liga · 2014 | 29 | €1.7M | €350k | fell |
| Eli Dasa Premier Liga · 2023 | 31 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Fabiano Liga Portugal · 2020 | 29 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Estoril | Without Club | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 9 Jul 2024 | PAS Lamia | Estoril | Free / loan | €700k |
| 26 Sept 2023 | Without Club | PAS Lamia | Unknown | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Al-Khaleej | Without Club | Unknown | €700k |
| 19 Jan 2023 | Rio Ave | Al-Khaleej | €1.0M | €750k |
| 4 Jul 2019 | Benfica B | Rio Ave | Unknown | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Panetolikos | Benfica B | Free / loan | €800k |
| 9 Jan 2019 | Benfica B | Panetolikos | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Benfica U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Casa Pia U19 | Benfica U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2014 | Benfica U19 | Casa Pia U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Lourel Formação | Benfica Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.