Marios Siampanis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marios Siampanis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 11.7th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €267k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2250 (96% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1129
- Opponent strength
- 1245
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €324k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 73 pts; league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -31% to +30%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–179%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | GK | 25 | 2250 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1245 | 1129 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | GK | 6 | 540 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1294 | 1069 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | GK | 4 | 360 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1274 | 1144 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | GK | 1 | 90 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1191 | 1314 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | GK | 5 | 450 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1218 | 1339 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | GK | 9 | 810 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1261 | 1343 | 0.39 |
| 2016/17 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | GK | 2 | 72 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1175 | 1462 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Okan Kocuk Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €1.1M | €1.0M | flat |
| Zander Clark Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 27 | €350k | €450k | rose |
| Patrik Carlgren Superliga · 2019 | 27 | €700k | €1.0M | rose |
| Erdem Canpolat Super Lig · 2024 | 23 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Bahadır Güngördü Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Joris Delle Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Liam Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 26 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Václav Hladký Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 30 | €400k | €400k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Aris Saloniki | Volos NFC | Free / loan | €350k |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Olympiacos | Aris Saloniki | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Nottingham U23 | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €250k |
| 11 Aug 2019 | Olympiacos | Nottingham U23 | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | PAOK | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | PAOK U20 | PAOK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.