Viktor Gyökeres
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Viktor Gyökeres's performance-implied value at EUR 35.2M-98.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 44.6M-94.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 36.1M-72.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (2231 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €65.8M vs market €65.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2231 (65% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.60
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.33
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1876
- Opponent strength
- 1585
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €36.1M – €72.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts; changed club; team strength up (+265 Elo); league level up (+291 Elo); relative output down 51% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -34% (IQR -44% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | ST | 36 | 2231 | 65% | 14 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.32 | 1585 | 1876 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | ST | 33 | 2804 | 92% | 39 | 8 | 1.51 | 0.68 | 1327 | 1610 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | ST | 33 | 2915 | 95% | 29 | 9 | 1.17 | 0.54 | 1362 | 1675 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 12 | 861 | 5 | 1 | 1610 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Sweden | 3 | 270 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 75 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 8 | 606 | 6 | 0 | 1632 |
| 2024/25 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 120 | 0 | 2 | 1628 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 9 | 622 | 5 | 2 | 1536 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Swansea City | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 4 | 107 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Firmino Premier League · 2019 | 28 | €80.0M | €50.0M | fell |
| Antoine Griezmann Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €96.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Bernardo Silva Premier League · 2020 | 26 | €80.0M | €80.0M | flat |
| Raheem Sterling Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €90.0M | €55.0M | fell |
| Thomas Müller Bundesliga · 2017 | 28 | €50.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Karim Benzema Laliga · 2015 | 28 | €50.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Serge Gnabry Bundesliga · 2021 | 26 | €70.0M | €55.0M | fell |
| Romelu Lukaku Premier League · 2022 | 29 | €70.0M | €30.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2025 | Sporting | Arsenal | €66.9M | €75.0M |
| 13 Jul 2023 | Coventry | Sporting | €24.0M | €13.0M |
| 9 Jul 2021 | Brighton | Coventry | €1.2M | €1.0M |
| 31 May 2021 | Coventry | Brighton | Free / loan | €800k |
| 15 Jan 2021 | Brighton | Coventry | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 14 Jan 2021 | Swansea | Brighton | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Brighton | Swansea | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | St. Pauli | Brighton | Free / loan | €800k |
| 25 Jul 2019 | Brighton | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Brommapojkarna | Brighton | €1.0M | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | IF Bromma U19 | Brommapojkarna | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | IF Bromma U17 | IF Bromma U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 Jan 2014 | Aspud.-Tel. U19 | IF Bromma U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.