Ridle Baku
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ridle Baku's performance-implied value at EUR 7.2M-16.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.4M-10.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.4M-10.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €5.8M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2514 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1568
- Opponent strength
- 1486
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.4M – €10.7M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+80 Elo); role change RM -> RB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -74% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | RB | 32 | 2514 | 82% | 2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 1486 | 1568 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | RM | 19 | 1278 | 42% | 2 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.21 | 1473 | 1533 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | RW | 15 | 1175 | 38% | 2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 1499 | 1438 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | RB | 33 | 2014 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1541 | 1427 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | RB | 33 | 2582 | 84% | 5 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 1527 | 1525 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | RM | 34 | 2449 | 80% | 3 | 5 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 1517 | 1495 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | RB | 32 | 2689 | 88% | 6 | 8 | 0.47 | 0.29 | 1526 | 1613 | 1.06 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | RB | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1536 | 1481 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CM | 30 | 2350 | 77% | 1 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 1543 | 1471 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CM | 15 | 938 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1505 | 1488 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CM | 3 | 234 | 8% | 2 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.44 | 1551 | 1444 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 3 | 244 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 257 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 2 | 170 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 201 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 413 | 1 | 0 | 1648 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 207 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Mancini Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Vedran Corluka Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Stefan Posch Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Aleksey Kozlov Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Igor Zubeldia Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €22.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Mathieu Debuchy Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €11.5M | €13.0M | flat |
| Stefan Lainer Bundesliga · 2021 | 29 | €12.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| John Brooks Bundesliga · 2021 | 28 | €14.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2025 | Wolfsburg | Leipzig | €4.5M | €7.0M |
| 1 Oct 2020 | Mainz | Wolfsburg | €10.0M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FSV Mainz 05 II | Mainz | Unknown | €125k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Mainz 05 U19 | FSV Mainz 05 II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Mainz 05 U17 | Mainz 05 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Mainz 05 Yth. | Mainz 05 U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.