
Muhammed Şengezer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Muhammed Şengezer's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-2.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-4.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-3.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2970 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.01
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1357
- Opponent strength
- 1271
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €3.6M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+71 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -61% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 1271 | 1357 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | GK | 34 | 3060 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1278 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | GK | 14 | 1260 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1271 | 1397 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | GK | 12 | 1080 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1275 | 1395 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | GK | 7 | 630 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1263 | 1372 | 0.42 |
| 2018/19 | Bursaspor | Super Lig | GK | 9 | 810 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1415 | 1258 | 0.58 |
| 2017/18 | Bursaspor | Super Lig | GK | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1288 | 1276 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1339 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 5 | 450 | 0 | 1 | 1246 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Olij Eredivisie · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mamadou Samassa Super Lig · 2020 | 30 | €2.4M | €275k | fell |
| Vasilios Barkas Eredivisie · 2024 | 30 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Sammy Bossut Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Sokratis Dioudis Super League 1 · 2021 | 28 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Ilya Lantratov Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Eloy Room Eredivisie · 2017 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Uğurcan Çakır Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €8.0M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2021 | Adana Demirspor | Basaksehir | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Basaksehir | Adana Demirspor | Free / loan | €500k |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Adana Demirspor | Basaksehir | Free / loan | €675k |
| 14 Jan 2020 | Basaksehir | Adana Demirspor | Free / loan | €850k |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Bursaspor | Basaksehir | €1.1M | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Bursaspor U21 | Bursaspor | Unknown | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Yesil Bursa | Bursaspor U21 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 20 Aug 2015 | Bursaspor U21 | Yesil Bursa | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Bursaspor U17 | Bursaspor U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Bursaspor U16 | Bursaspor U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Bursaspor Yth | Bursaspor U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 10 Feb 2009 | Bursa Yol Yth | Bursaspor Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.