Muhammed Şengezer

29 yrs · Goalkeeper · Türkiye
Basaksehir FK · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 192 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€3.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€930k – €4.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€855k – €2.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.5M – €3.6M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.4M – €1.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€930k – €4.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€855k – €2.7M
Projected value (24 months)€1.5M – €3.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Muhammed Şengezer's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-2.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-4.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-3.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 53

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage53.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €2.2M vs market €3.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-36% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2970 (97% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.03
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.01
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
53 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1357
Opponent strength
1271
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.5M – €3.6M

Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+71 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -61% to -19%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
138 (all positions)
Relative output kept
76%–145%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
59%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Basaksehir FKSuper LigGK33297097%010.030.01127113570.40
2024/25Basaksehir FKSuper LigGK34306094%000.000.00127812860.39
2023/24Basaksehir FKSuper LigGK14126037%000.000.00127113970.45
2022/23Basaksehir FKSuper LigGK12108033%000.000.00127513950.50
2021/22Basaksehir FKSuper LigGK763018%000.000.00126313720.42
2018/19BursasporSuper LigGK981026%000.000.00141512580.58
2017/18BursasporSuper LigGK32709%000.000.00128812760.68

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingBasaksehir FK5450001339
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingBasaksehir FK5450011246

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Nick Olij
Eredivisie · 2024
29€4.0M€2.0Mfell
Mamadou Samassa
Super Lig · 2020
30€2.4M€275kfell
Vasilios Barkas
Eredivisie · 2024
30€3.0M€3.0Mflat
Sammy Bossut
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
29€2.0M€1.5Mfell
Sokratis Dioudis
Super League 1 · 2021
28€1.5M€600kfell
Ilya Lantratov
Premier Liga · 2024
29€3.5M€1.5Mfell
Eloy Room
Eredivisie · 2017
28€4.0M€1.5Mfell
Uğurcan Çakır
Super Lig · 2024
28€8.0M€15.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2021Adana DemirsporBasaksehirFree / loan€450k
1 Feb 2021BasaksehirAdana DemirsporFree / loan€500k
3 Aug 2020Adana DemirsporBasaksehirFree / loan€675k
14 Jan 2020BasaksehirAdana DemirsporFree / loan€850k
2 Sept 2019BursasporBasaksehir€1.1M€350k
1 Jul 2016Bursaspor U21BursasporUnknown€50k
30 Jun 2016Yesil BursaBursaspor U21Free / loan€50k
20 Aug 2015Bursaspor U21Yesil BursaFree / loan€50k
1 Jul 2014Bursaspor U17Bursaspor U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Bursaspor U16Bursaspor U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Bursaspor YthBursaspor U16UnknownData unavailable
10 Feb 2009Bursa Yol YthBursaspor YthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.