Jonathan Burkardt

26 yrs · Striker (also LW) · Germany
Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 181 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€30.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€22.0M – €37.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€8.2M – €23.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€12.3M – €33.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€29.7M – €1.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€22.0M – €37.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€8.2M – €23.8M
Projected value (24 months)€12.3M – €33.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€30.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Jonathan Burkardt's performance-implied value at EUR 8.2M-23.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.0M-37.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.3M-33.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.26x the positional average in the league (1340 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 8

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh83th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €28.8M vs market €30.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-38% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €35.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1340 (44% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.94
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.64
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
83 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1445
Opponent strength
1482
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€12.3M – €33.2M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts; changed club; team strength down (-69 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -41% to -1%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1340 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaST22134044%1310.940.64148214450.94
2024/251.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaST29212569%1830.890.65148915150.94
2023/241.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaST21154350%820.580.60150314891.01
2022/231.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaST1153517%120.500.57156114961.04
2021/221.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaST34263286%1130.480.47151215071.05
2020/211.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaST29137545%220.260.42153814811.06
2019/201.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaST82508%100.360.67168214711.06
2018/191.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaLW42608%000.000.34151914881.05

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueEintracht Frankfurt5342211644
2025/26Dfb PokalEintracht Frankfurt220000—
2024/25Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05112010—
2022/23Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 0517600—
2021/22Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05321431—
2020/21Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05214001—
2019/20Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 0511500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Sasa Kalajdzic
Bundesliga · 2022
25€25.0M€5.0Mfell
Wilfried Bony
Premier League · 2015
27€25.0M€18.0Mfell
Lucas Boyé
Laliga · 2022
26€15.0M€7.0Mfell
Habib Diallo
Ligue 1 · 2022
27€12.0M€11.0Mflat
Riccardo Orsolini
Serie A · 2021
24€15.0M€12.0Mfell
Justin Kluivert
Laliga · 2023
24€14.0M€35.0Mrose
Dodi Lukébakio
Laliga · 2024
27€12.0M€15.0Mrose
Andre Gray
Premier League · 2018
27€15.0M€9.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
4 Jul 2025MainzFrankfurt€21.0M€35.0M
1 Jul 2018Mainz 05 U19MainzUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Mainz 05 U17Mainz 05 U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Mainz 05 Yth.Mainz 05 U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Darmstadt Yth.Mainz 05 Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 20091.FCA 04 Jgd.Darmstadt Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.