
Jonathan Burkardt
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jonathan Burkardt's performance-implied value at EUR 8.2M-23.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.0M-37.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.3M-33.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.26x the positional average in the league (1340 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €28.8M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1340 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.94
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.64
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1445
- Opponent strength
- 1482
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.3M – €33.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts; changed club; team strength down (-69 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -41% to -1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1340 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | ST | 22 | 1340 | 44% | 13 | 1 | 0.94 | 0.64 | 1482 | 1445 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | ST | 29 | 2125 | 69% | 18 | 3 | 0.89 | 0.65 | 1489 | 1515 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | ST | 21 | 1543 | 50% | 8 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.60 | 1503 | 1489 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | ST | 11 | 535 | 17% | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 1561 | 1496 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | ST | 34 | 2632 | 86% | 11 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 1512 | 1507 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | ST | 29 | 1375 | 45% | 2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.42 | 1538 | 1481 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | ST | 8 | 250 | 8% | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.67 | 1682 | 1471 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | LW | 4 | 260 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1519 | 1488 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 342 | 2 | 1 | 1644 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 200 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 3 | 214 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 140 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sasa Kalajdzic Bundesliga · 2022 | 25 | €25.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Wilfried Bony Premier League · 2015 | 27 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Lucas Boyé Laliga · 2022 | 26 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Habib Diallo Ligue 1 · 2022 | 27 | €12.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Riccardo Orsolini Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Justin Kluivert Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €14.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Dodi Lukébakio Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Andre Gray Premier League · 2018 | 27 | €15.0M | €9.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2025 | Mainz | Frankfurt | €21.0M | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Mainz 05 U19 | Mainz | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Mainz 05 U17 | Mainz 05 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Mainz 05 Yth. | Mainz 05 U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Darmstadt Yth. | Mainz 05 Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | 1.FCA 04 Jgd. | Darmstadt Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.