Amos Pieper
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Amos Pieper's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-6.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-5.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.0M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1504 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1378
- Opponent strength
- 1473
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.4M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-104 Elo); relative output down 23% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -53% (IQR -61% to -39%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1504 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CB | 19 | 1504 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1473 | 1378 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CB | 23 | 1500 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1520 | 1483 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CB | 7 | 591 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1488 | 1459 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CB | 29 | 1956 | 64% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1537 | 1393 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Arminia Bielefeld | Bundesliga | CB | 27 | 2382 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1536 | 1368 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Arminia Bielefeld | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2684 | 88% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1553 | 1384 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Arminia Bielefeld | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Arminia Bielefeld | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Friedrich Bundesliga · 2024 | 29 | €3.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Carlos Zambrano Bundesliga · 2016 | 27 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Papy Djilobodji Premier League · 2017 | 29 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Christophe Hérelle Ligue 1 · 2022 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Pedro Mendes Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €3.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Fabien Centonze Ligue 1 · 2023 | 27 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Paweł Dawidowicz Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Cédric Zesiger Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Arm. Bielefeld | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 28 Jan 2019 | B. Dortmund II | Arm. Bielefeld | €50k | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | B. Dortmund U19 | B. Dortmund II | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | B. Dortmund U17 | B. Dortmund U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Dortmund Yth. | B. Dortmund U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Lüdinghsn. Yth. | Dortmund Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Nordkirch. Yth. | Lüdinghsn. Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.