Denis Zakaria
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Denis Zakaria's performance-implied value at EUR 6.5M-15.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.1M-26.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.6M-14.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (2034 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €19.2M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -65% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2034 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1527
- Opponent strength
- 1466
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.6M – €14.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 44% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -58% to -34%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | DM | 24 | 2034 | 66% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 1466 | 1527 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | DM | 26 | 2148 | 70% | 6 | 4 | 0.42 | 0.23 | 1448 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | DM | 25 | 2142 | 70% | 4 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 1493 | 1573 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | DM | 7 | 413 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1555 | 1579 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CM | 2 | 122 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1500 | 1614 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | DM | 16 | 1395 | 46% | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 1494 | 1535 | 1.05 |
| 2021/22 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CM | 9 | 596 | 17% | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.13 | 1407 | 1623 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | DM | 25 | 1420 | 46% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 1551 | 1581 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | DM | 23 | 1947 | 64% | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 1524 | 1604 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CM | 31 | 1957 | 64% | 4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 1507 | 1528 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | DM | 30 | 2305 | 75% | 2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 1531 | 1521 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 6 | 507 | 0 | 0 | 1684 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Switzerland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 7 | 614 | 1 | 0 | 1655 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | AS Monaco | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1728 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 2 | 74 | 1 | 0 | 1611 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 3 | 218 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1675 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 291 | 0 | 0 | 1811 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1481 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 246 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moubarak Boussoufa Premier Liga · 2014 | 30 | €14.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Hernanes Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €25.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Igor Denisov Premier Liga · 2013 | 29 | €16.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Aleksandr Golovin Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €30.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Riccardo Montolivo Serie A · 2014 | 29 | €14.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Nabil Bentaleb Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €10.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Matías Vecino Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €21.0M | €18.5M | flat |
| Jordan Veretout Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €17.0M | €15.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2023 | Juventus | Monaco | €20.0M | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Chelsea | Juventus | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Juventus | Chelsea | Free / loan | €27.0M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Mönchengladbach | Juventus | €11.3M | €27.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Young Boys | Mönchengladbach | €12.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Servette FC | Young Boys | €400k | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Servette U21 | Servette FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Servette U18 | Servette U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.