Mikel Merino

The model rates Mikel Merino's performance-implied value at EUR 27.4M-43.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.3M-25.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.8M-15.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.17x the positional average in the league (1027 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1027 (30% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.61

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.26

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

98 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

1.30 (rank 1)

Team strength (Elo)

1876

Opponent strength

1613

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

stable

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€6.8M – €15.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; team strength up (+62 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -65% to -40%).

• ⚠Limited sample: 1027 league minutes last season.
• ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
• ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.