Noa Lang
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Noa Lang's performance-implied value at EUR 4.6M-16.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.7M-23.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.9M-17.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.65x the positional average in the league (1365 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 73.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €18.2M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1365 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 74 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1558
- Opponent strength
- 1246
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.9M – €17.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts; changed club; team strength down (-74 Elo); league level up (+55 Elo); relative output down 39% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -64% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1365 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | LW | 13 | 704 | 23% | 0 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 1246 | 1501 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | LW | 18 | 661 | 19% | 1 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.29 | 1488 | 1618 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LW | 29 | 1904 | 62% | 11 | 10 | 0.99 | 0.44 | 1314 | 1632 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LW | 11 | 588 | 19% | 4 | 2 | 0.92 | 0.26 | 1264 | 1659 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 28 | 1867 | 61% | 8 | 5 | 0.63 | 0.37 | 1305 | 1491 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 31 | 2350 | 77% | 7 | 12 | 0.73 | 0.38 | 1327 | 1512 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 24 | 1765 | 58% | 14 | 8 | 1.12 | 0.49 | 1339 | 1570 | 0.55 |
| 2020/21 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | LW | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1169 | 1722 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | LW | 7 | 602 | 26% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.39 | 1386 | 1238 | 0.62 |
| 2019/20 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 5 | 210 | 9% | 3 | 0 | 1.29 | 0.20 | 1296 | 1680 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | AM | 1 | 26 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1709 | 1459 | 0.61 |
| 2018/19 | FC Emmen | Eredivisie | LW | 1 | 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.96 | 1705 | 1268 | 0.61 |
| 2018/19 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | AM | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 12.86 | 0.16 | 1258 | 1746 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 4 | 253 | 2 | 0 | 1680 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 6 | 247 | 0 | 0 | 1553 |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | SSC Napoli | 2 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1626 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Netherlands | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 686 | 2 | 2 | 1633 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 150 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1593 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 240 | 0 | 0 | 1464 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 166 | 0 | 0 | 1645 |
| 2023/24 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 86 | 1 | 0 | 1639 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 49 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 4 | 292 | 0 | 0 | 1679 |
| 2022/23 | Volkswagen Supercup | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1420 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 6 | 528 | 0 | 1 | 1722 |
| 2021/22 | Volkswagen Supercup | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1414 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 6 | 298 | 1 | 1 | 1631 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 1579 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 88 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taison Premier Liga · 2014 | 26 | €15.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Haris Seferovic Liga Portugal · 2020 | 28 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Anton Miranchuk Premier Liga · 2020 | 25 | €13.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Roman Yaremchuk Liga Portugal · 2022 | 27 | €15.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Sebastián Driussi Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €7.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Marcus Edwards Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €20.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Rafa Silva Liga Portugal · 2017 | 24 | €15.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Arkadiusz Milik Serie A · 2020 | 26 | €32.0M | €16.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Galatasaray | Napoli | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 23 Jan 2026 | Napoli | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 17 Jul 2025 | PSV | Napoli | €25.0M | €25.0M |
| 8 Jul 2023 | Club Brugge | PSV | €12.5M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Ajax | Club Brugge | €6.0M | €22.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Club Brugge | Ajax | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Ajax | Club Brugge | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 4 May 2020 | FC Twente | Ajax | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 18 Jan 2020 | Ajax | FC Twente | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 12 Sept 2019 | Ajax U21 | Ajax | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Ajax U19 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Feyenoord Youth | Ajax Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2010 | Besiktas Yth | Feyenoord Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Feyenoord Youth | Besiktas Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2007 | FC Nantes Yth. | Feyenoord Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Feyenoord Youth | FC Nantes Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | HION | Feyenoord Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.