Fran García

27 yrs · Left-back · Spain
Real Madrid · Laliga · Foot: left · Height: 169 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€10.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€4.9M – €12.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€11.1M – €29.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€4.2M – €11.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.2M – €24.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€4.9M – €12.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€11.1M – €29.1M
Projected value (24 months)€4.2M – €11.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€10.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Fran García's performance-implied value at EUR 11.1M-29.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.9M-12.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.2M-11.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 40

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh88.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.9 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €8.2M vs market €10.0M
Expected appreciationLow-24% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €18.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
930 (27% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.19
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
88 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1745
Opponent strength
1469
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€4.2M – €11.9M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 36 pts; relative output up 62% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -54% to -19%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 930 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Real MadridLaligaLB1393027%110.190.10146917450.95
2024/25Real MadridLaligaLB31217464%020.080.06147517640.95
2023/24Real MadridLaligaLB25139541%150.390.14144518671.00
2022/23Rayo VallecanoLaligaLB38339999%230.130.16150813980.98
2021/22Rayo VallecanoLaligaLB34302688%100.030.07154513891.05

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid7246001642
2025/26Copa Del ReyReal Madrid215500—
2025/26SupercopaReal Madrid121001704
2024/25Copa Del ReyReal Madrid641702—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid9263001723
2024/25SupercopaReal Madrid115001768
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid4188011530
2023/24Copa Del ReyReal Madrid210500—
2022/23Copa Del ReyRayo Vallecano28500—
2021/22Copa Del ReyRayo Vallecano539301—
2018/19Copa Del ReyReal Madrid14501—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Willi Orbán
Bundesliga · 2020
28€16.0M€10.0Mfell
Bruno Peres
Serie A · 2018
28€8.0M€2.0Mfell
Clément Lenglet
Laliga · 2022
27€12.0M€10.0Mflat
Alessio Romagnoli
Serie A · 2022
27€17.0M€15.0Mflat
Mattia De Sciglio
Serie A · 2018
26€14.0M€9.5Mfell
Mathieu Debuchy
Premier League · 2015
30€13.0M€3.5Mfell
Nordi Mukiele
Ligue 1 · 2023
26€18.0M€10.0Mfell
Ludwig Augustinsson
Laliga · 2022
28€5.0M€4.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2023Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid€5.0M€12.0M
13 Jul 2021RM CastillaRayo Vallecano€2.0M€3.0M
30 Jun 2021Rayo VallecanoRM CastillaFree / loan€3.0M
1 Sept 2020RM CastillaRayo VallecanoFree / loan€250k
1 Jul 2018Real Madrid U19RM CastillaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Real Madrid U18Real Madrid U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Real Madrid U17Real Madrid U18UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.