
Fran García
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fran García's performance-implied value at EUR 11.1M-29.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.9M-12.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.2M-11.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €8.2M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 930 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1745
- Opponent strength
- 1469
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.2M – €11.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 36 pts; relative output up 62% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -54% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 930 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Madrid | Laliga | LB | 13 | 930 | 27% | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 1469 | 1745 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Madrid | Laliga | LB | 31 | 2174 | 64% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1475 | 1764 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Madrid | Laliga | LB | 25 | 1395 | 41% | 1 | 5 | 0.39 | 0.14 | 1445 | 1867 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | LB | 38 | 3399 | 99% | 2 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 1508 | 1398 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | LB | 34 | 3026 | 88% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 1545 | 1389 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 7 | 246 | 0 | 0 | 1642 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 2 | 155 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1704 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 6 | 417 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 9 | 263 | 0 | 0 | 1723 |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1768 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 4 | 188 | 0 | 1 | 1530 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 2 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 85 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 393 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 45 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willi Orbán Bundesliga · 2020 | 28 | €16.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Bruno Peres Serie A · 2018 | 28 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Clément Lenglet Laliga · 2022 | 27 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Alessio Romagnoli Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €17.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Mattia De Sciglio Serie A · 2018 | 26 | €14.0M | €9.5M | fell |
| Mathieu Debuchy Premier League · 2015 | 30 | €13.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Nordi Mukiele Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €18.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Ludwig Augustinsson Laliga · 2022 | 28 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Rayo Vallecano | Real Madrid | €5.0M | €12.0M |
| 13 Jul 2021 | RM Castilla | Rayo Vallecano | €2.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Rayo Vallecano | RM Castilla | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | RM Castilla | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Real Madrid U19 | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Real Madrid U18 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Real Madrid U17 | Real Madrid U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.