Ivan Kalyuzhnyi

28 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · Ukraine
TOV FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv · Premier Liga · Foot: left · Height: 189 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€578k – €1.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€458k – €1.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€706k – €2.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.3M – €754k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€578k – €1.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€458k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€706k – €2.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ivan Kalyuzhnyi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.83x the positional average in the league (2425 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 62

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average30th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.1M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-36% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2425 (90% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.15
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.18
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
30 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1186
Opponent strength
1181
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€706k – €2.1M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-123 Elo); role change DM -> CM.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -41% to +2%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
37 (all positions)
Relative output kept
87%–128%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
86%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26TOV FK Metalist 1925 KharkivPremier LigaCM27242590%220.150.18118111860.25
2024/25FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaDM27238888%220.150.13120113090.28
2023/24FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaCM16115143%000.000.10127912180.34
2023/24LNZ CherkasyPremier LigaCM861223%000.000.19129811790.34
2020/21FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaCM5874%000.000.14118112850.49
2020/21Rukh LvivPremier LigaDM3864%000.000.14127312310.49

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupTOV FK Metalist 1925 Kharkiv433711—
2024/25Ukrainian CupFC Oleksandriya112000—
2020/21Ukrainian CupRukh Lviv19000—
2020/21Ukrainian CupFC Oleksandriya13200—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rayane Aabid
Super Lig · 2021
29€1.5M€600kfell
Haris Hajradinovic
Super Lig · 2021
27€3.2M€2.5Mfell
Joe Newell
Scottish Premiership · 2024
31€850k€200kfell
Djihad Bizimana
Premier Liga · 2024
28€800k€850kflat
Vadym Vitenchuk
Premier Liga · 2023
26€600k€400kfell
Eder González
Super League 1 · 2023
26€700k€800kflat
Zisis Karachalios
Super League 1 · 2023
27€600k€600kflat
Amr Warda
Super League 1 · 2021
28€1.5M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025FC OleksandriyaMetalist 1925Free / loan€2.0M
31 Dec 2023LNZ CherkasyFC OleksandriyaFree / loan€400k
30 Aug 2023FC OleksandriyaLNZ CherkasyFree / loan€550k
30 Jun 2023Kerala BlastersFC OleksandriyaFree / loan€550k
18 Jul 2022FC OleksandriyaKerala BlastersFree / loan€400k
30 Jun 2022KeflavíkFC OleksandriyaFree / loan€400k
18 Apr 2022FC OleksandriyaKeflavíkFree / loan€400k
12 Feb 2021Dynamo Kyiv IIFC OleksandriyaFree / loan€250k
31 Dec 2020Rukh LvivDynamo Kyiv IIFree / loan€300k
24 Jul 2019Dynamo Kyiv IIRukh LvivFree / loan€200k
30 Jun 2019Metalist 1925Dynamo Kyiv IIFree / loan€200k
1 Jul 2018Dynamo Kyiv IIMetalist 1925Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Dynamo Kyiv U19Dynamo Kyiv IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2015Metalist U17Dynamo Kyiv U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.