Lazar Carević
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lazar Carević's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-4.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-6.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.9M-8.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 54
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52.7th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.4M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1323
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.9M – €8.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 47 pts; team strength up (+73 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -69% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 182 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–147%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 73%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1323 | 1406 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | GK | 18 | 1620 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1335 | 1333 | 0.51 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FK Vojvodina Novi Sad | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1385 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FK Vojvodina Novi Sad | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1443 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Butez Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 27 | €4.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Eloy Room Eredivisie · 2016 | 27 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| David Jensen Eredivisie · 2018 | 26 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Onur Kivrak Super Lig · 2017 | 29 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Aleksandr Selikhov Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €3.0M | €900k | fell |
| Marco Bizot Eredivisie · 2018 | 27 | €4.0M | €5.5M | rose |
| Arnaud Bodart Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Loris Karius Super Lig · 2019 | 26 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2024 | Vojvodina | Famalicão | €800k | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Barça Atlètic | Vojvodina | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | OFK Grbalj | Barça U19 | Unknown | €250k |
| 20 Apr 2015 | OFK Grbalj U19 | OFK Grbalj | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.