Mateusz Lis

29 yrs · Goalkeeper · Poland
Göztepe · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 192 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€2.5M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€665k – €2.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€587k – €2.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€967k – €2.6M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.1M – €1.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€665k – €2.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€587k – €2.3M
Projected value (24 months)€967k – €2.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Mateusz Lis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 76

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage49.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.4M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationLow-26% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
3060 (100% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
50 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1281
Opponent strength
1271
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€967k – €2.6M

Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+80 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -53% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
138 (all positions)
Relative output kept
76%–145%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
59%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26GöztepeSuper LigGK343060100%000.000.00127112810.40
2024/25GöztepeSuper LigGK32288089%000.000.00128912010.39
2022/23ESTAC TroyesLigue 1GK975022%000.000.00140312470.82

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Günay Güvenç
Super Lig · 2021
30€2.0M€2.0Mflat
Mamadou Samassa
Super Lig · 2020
30€2.4M€275kfell
Nick Olij
Eredivisie · 2024
29€4.0M€2.0Mfell
Patrik Carlgren
Superliga · 2021
29€1.0M€1.0Mflat
Markos Vellidis
Super League 1 · 2016
29€1.3M€750kfell
Sokratis Dioudis
Super League 1 · 2021
28€1.5M€600kfell
Ilya Pomazun
Premier Liga · 2024
28€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Robbin Ruiter
Eredivisie · 2015
28€2.0M€2.5Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
22 Aug 2024SouthamptonGöztepeUnknown€1.6M
30 Jun 2024GöztepeSouthamptonFree / loan€1.6M
11 Jul 2023SouthamptonGöztepeFree / loan€900k
30 Jun 2023TroyesSouthamptonFree / loan€900k
1 Sept 2022SouthamptonTroyesFree / loan€900k
1 Jul 2022Altay SKSouthamptonFree / loan€900k
6 Aug 2021Wisla KrakówAltay SK€700k€650k
1 Jul 2018Lech PoznanWisla Kraków€125k€50k
30 Jun 2018RakówLech PoznanFree / loan€50k
1 Jan 2017Lech PoznanRakówFree / loan€100k
5 Dec 2016PodbeskidzieLech PoznanFree / loan€100k
12 Jul 2016Lech PoznanPodbeskidzieFree / loan€100k
1 Jan 2016Miedz LegnicaLech PoznanFree / loan€100k
23 Jul 2015Lech PoznanMiedz LegnicaFree / loan€100k
13 Feb 2015Lech U19Lech PoznanUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Falubaz U19Lech U19Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.