
Mateusz Lis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mateusz Lis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1281
- Opponent strength
- 1271
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €967k – €2.6M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+80 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -53% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Göztepe | Super Lig | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1271 | 1281 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Göztepe | Super Lig | GK | 32 | 2880 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1289 | 1201 | 0.39 |
| 2022/23 | ESTAC Troyes | Ligue 1 | GK | 9 | 750 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1403 | 1247 | 0.82 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Günay Güvenç Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Mamadou Samassa Super Lig · 2020 | 30 | €2.4M | €275k | fell |
| Nick Olij Eredivisie · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Patrik Carlgren Superliga · 2021 | 29 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Markos Vellidis Super League 1 · 2016 | 29 | €1.3M | €750k | fell |
| Sokratis Dioudis Super League 1 · 2021 | 28 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Ilya Pomazun Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Robbin Ruiter Eredivisie · 2015 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2024 | Southampton | Göztepe | Unknown | €1.6M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Göztepe | Southampton | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 11 Jul 2023 | Southampton | Göztepe | Free / loan | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Troyes | Southampton | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Southampton | Troyes | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Altay SK | Southampton | Free / loan | €900k |
| 6 Aug 2021 | Wisla Kraków | Altay SK | €700k | €650k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Lech Poznan | Wisla Kraków | €125k | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Raków | Lech Poznan | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Lech Poznan | Raków | Free / loan | €100k |
| 5 Dec 2016 | Podbeskidzie | Lech Poznan | Free / loan | €100k |
| 12 Jul 2016 | Lech Poznan | Podbeskidzie | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Miedz Legnica | Lech Poznan | Free / loan | €100k |
| 23 Jul 2015 | Lech Poznan | Miedz Legnica | Free / loan | €100k |
| 13 Feb 2015 | Lech U19 | Lech Poznan | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Falubaz U19 | Lech U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.