Jerdy Schouten

29 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also CB, CM, ST) · Netherlands
PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€20.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€10.5M – €19.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€4.2M – €10.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€5.6M – €12.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€15.4M – -€390k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€10.5M – €19.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€4.2M – €10.1M
Projected value (24 months)€5.6M – €12.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€20.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Jerdy Schouten's performance-implied value at EUR 4.2M-10.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.5M-19.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.6M-12.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 1

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh79.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €15.2M vs market €20.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-65% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €35.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2381 (78% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.11
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.05
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
79 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1606
Opponent strength
1282
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€5.6M – €12.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts; role change DM -> CB.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -43% to -7%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (DEF)
Relative output kept
65%–166%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26PSV EindhovenEredivisieCB28238178%120.110.05128216060.43
2024/25PSV EindhovenEredivisieDM18129742%120.210.07127416320.50
2023/24PSV EindhovenEredivisieDM29242779%400.150.06134216590.48
2022/23Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ADM33251674%020.070.10148014820.94
2021/22Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ADM17139341%110.130.14147613950.89
2020/21Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ADM34252274%110.070.08146113800.90
2019/20Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ADM19108232%010.080.09141413650.82
2018/19Excelsior RotterdamEredivisieCM31272789%120.100.16135012350.61
2016/17ADO Den HaagEredivisieST2120%000.000.62136212590.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeaguePSV Eindhoven8675001671
2025/26Knvb BekerPSV Eindhoven327000—
2025/26Johan Cruijff SchaalPSV Eindhoven190001297
2024/25Uefa Champions LeaguePSV Eindhoven7567101691
2024/25Knvb BekerPSV Eindhoven430100—
2024/25Johan Cruijff SchaalPSV Eindhoven181001593
2023/24Uefa Champions LeaguePSV Eindhoven7622001634
2023/24Knvb BekerPSV Eindhoven215600—
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingPSV Eindhoven291001528
2022/23Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909320901—
2021/22Italy CupBologna Football Club 190919000—
2020/21Italy CupBologna Football Club 190912300—
2019/20Italy CupBologna Football Club 190914500—
2018/19Knvb BekerExcelsior Rotterdam112000—
2016/17Knvb BekerADO Den Haag11400—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Héctor Moreno
Eredivisie · 2016
28€7.5M€4.0Mfell
Yevgen Khacheridi
Premier Liga · 2016
29€8.5M€3.0Mfell
Antunes
Premier Liga · 2016
29€6.0M€3.5Mfell
Vyacheslav Karavaev
Premier Liga · 2023
28€6.0M€3.5Mfell
Greg Taylor
Scottish Premiership · 2023
26€6.5M€6.0Mflat
Alistair Johnston
Scottish Premiership · 2024
26€8.5M€8.0Mflat
Clinton Mata
Jupiler Pro League · 2020
28€6.5M€8.0Mrose
Nicolás Tagliafico
Eredivisie · 2019
27€28.0M€22.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
16 Aug 2023BolognaPSV€12.3M€12.0M
5 Jul 2019ExcelsiorBologna€2.1M€2.0M
1 Jul 2018TelstarExcelsior€300k€300k
1 Jul 2017ADO Den HaagTelstarFree / loan€75k
1 Jul 2016ADO U19ADO Den HaagUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015ADO U18ADO U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014ADO U17ADO U18UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.