Robin Le Normand
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Robin Le Normand's performance-implied value at EUR 8.1M-22.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.6M-20.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.7M-11.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 0
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €16.2M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -63% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1783 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1619
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.7M – €11.9M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 104% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -63% to -34%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1783 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 28 | 1783 | 52% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1484 | 1619 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 27 | 2149 | 63% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1519 | 1655 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 29 | 2472 | 72% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1470 | 1588 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 33 | 2795 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1517 | 1604 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1536 | 1559 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 33 | 2748 | 80% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1566 | 1573 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 31 | 2389 | 70% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1527 | 1567 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 2 | 103 | 3% | 0 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.13 | 1424 | 1536 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1551 | 1510 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1527 | 1583 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 14 | 806 | 2 | 0 | 1717 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 3 | 211 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1747 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 373 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 229 | 0 | 0 | 1662 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 7 | 578 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Real Sociedad | 7 | 573 | 0 | 0 | 1732 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 7 | 573 | 1 | 0 | 1523 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 4 | 349 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 6 | 528 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 2 | 142 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Supercopa | Real Sociedad | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1781 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 8 | 720 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 2 | 176 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aritz Elustondo Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €14.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Martin Skrtel Premier League · 2013 | 29 | €15.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Raphaël Guerreiro Bundesliga · 2022 | 29 | €25.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Giorgio Chiellini Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €28.5M | €16.5M | fell |
| Stephan Lichtsteiner Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €17.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Michael Dawson Premier League · 2013 | 30 | €9.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Héctor Bellerín Laliga · 2022 | 27 | €20.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Stefan Radu Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €8.5M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2024 | Real Sociedad | Atlético | €34.5M | €40.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Real Sociedad B | Real Sociedad | Unknown | €4.0M |
| 4 Jul 2016 | Brest B | Real Sociedad B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Stade Brest U19 | Brest B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.