Mert Müldür
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mert Müldür's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-4.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-5.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-7.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.1M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1214 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1477
- Opponent strength
- 1234
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.6M – €7.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -54% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1214 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | RB | 24 | 1214 | 40% | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 1234 | 1477 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | RB | 29 | 1873 | 58% | 3 | 4 | 0.34 | 0.12 | 1283 | 1503 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | RB | 26 | 1111 | 32% | 1 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.17 | 1263 | 1583 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | RB | 2 | 13 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1605 | 1420 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | RB | 31 | 2046 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1511 | 1464 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | RB | 28 | 1680 | 49% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1444 | 1502 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | RB | 24 | 1270 | 37% | 2 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.33 | 1466 | 1428 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 6 | 419 | 0 | 0 | 1509 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 4 | 322 | 0 | 0 | 1608 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Turkiye | 3 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 10 | 720 | 0 | 1 | 1529 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 4 | 194 | 0 | 0 | 1514 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 2 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1487 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Dubois Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €5.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Eduard Sobol Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 27 | €3.2M | €1.5M | fell |
| Rodrigão Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Mikael Lustig Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 28 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Ousseynou Ba Super League 1 · 2021 | 26 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Oleksandr Karavaev Premier Liga · 2022 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Oleksandr Tymchyk Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Alberto Botía Super League 1 · 2018 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.8M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2023 | Sassuolo | Fenerbahçe | €3.0M | €4.0M |
| 20 Aug 2019 | Rapid Vienna | Sassuolo | €5.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Rapid Wien II | Rapid Vienna | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | AKA Rapid U18 | Rapid Wien II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | AKA Rapid U16 | AKA Rapid U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | AKA Rapid U15 | AKA Rapid U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Rapid Youth | AKA Rapid U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.