Rafael Leão
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rafael Leão's performance-implied value at EUR 16.2M-57.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 36.5M-59.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.0M-45.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.87x the positional average in the league (1861 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 4
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 92.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €46.5M vs market €50.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1861 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.58
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1508
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.0M – €45.8M
Trajectory drivers: role change LW -> ST; relative output down 25% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -53% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AC Milan | Serie A | ST | 29 | 1861 | 54% | 9 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.44 | 1508 | 1570 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | AC Milan | Serie A | LW | 34 | 2330 | 68% | 8 | 10 | 0.70 | 0.49 | 1501 | 1625 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AC Milan | Serie A | LW | 34 | 2525 | 74% | 9 | 10 | 0.68 | 0.47 | 1487 | 1625 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | AC Milan | Serie A | LW | 35 | 2430 | 71% | 15 | 10 | 0.93 | 0.52 | 1457 | 1622 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | AC Milan | Serie A | LW | 34 | 2621 | 77% | 11 | 10 | 0.72 | 0.48 | 1467 | 1683 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | AC Milan | Serie A | ST | 30 | 1932 | 56% | 6 | 6 | 0.56 | 0.34 | 1447 | 1639 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | AC Milan | Serie A | ST | 31 | 1396 | 41% | 6 | 2 | 0.52 | 0.42 | 1427 | 1590 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | ST | 24 | 1297 | 38% | 8 | 2 | 0.69 | 0.58 | 1425 | 1543 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LW | 3 | 98 | 3% | 1 | 1 | 1.84 | 0.38 | 1434 | 1605 | 0.64 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 107 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Portugal | 3 | 46 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 10 | 797 | 3 | 1 | 1624 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 5 | 332 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 1 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 1846 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 6 | 471 | 3 | 4 | 1607 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 5 | 442 | 1 | 0 | 1687 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 110 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 11 | 915 | 1 | 5 | 1687 |
| 2022/23 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1704 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 53 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 4 | 294 | 1 | 1 | 1695 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 4 | 287 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 7 | 317 | 1 | 0 | 1595 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 205 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AC Milan | 1 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1431 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 82 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1468 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hulk Premier Liga · 2013 | 27 | €45.0M | €37.0M | flat |
| Joaquín Correa Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €30.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Hirving Lozano Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €30.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Victor Osimhen Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €100M | €75.0M | fell |
| Ante Rebić Bundesliga · 2019 | 26 | €40.0M | €32.0M | fell |
| Cenk Tosun Super Lig · 2018 | 27 | €23.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Breel Embolo Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Stephan El Shaarawy Serie A · 2019 | 27 | €30.0M | €7.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2019 | Lille | AC Milan | €49.5M | €15.0M |
| 8 Aug 2018 | Sporting | Lille | €20.2M | €6.0M |
| 5 Feb 2018 | Sporting B | Sporting | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sporting U19 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.