
Leandro Barreiro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Leandro Barreiro's performance-implied value at EUR 7.0M-20.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.4M-19.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.4M-20.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (1750 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.7M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1750 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1634
- Opponent strength
- 1329
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.4M – €20.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -65% to +47%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1750 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CM | 31 | 1750 | 57% | 3 | 5 | 0.41 | 0.21 | 1329 | 1634 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CM | 27 | 1204 | 39% | 3 | 4 | 0.52 | 0.23 | 1332 | 1632 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | DM | 31 | 2607 | 85% | 4 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 1509 | 1489 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CM | 31 | 2144 | 70% | 4 | 4 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 1540 | 1496 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CM | 31 | 1790 | 58% | 1 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 1516 | 1507 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CM | 29 | 2314 | 76% | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 1553 | 1481 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CM | 18 | 937 | 31% | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 1506 | 1471 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | DM | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1601 | 1488 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 9 | 633 | 2 | 0 | 1665 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 4 | 143 | 0 | 1 | 1508 |
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 9 | 261 | 0 | 0 | 1686 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 160 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 3 | 149 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 3 | 189 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Pires Liga Portugal · 2020 | 27 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Alan Dzagoev Premier Liga · 2018 | 28 | €15.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Pepê Liga Portugal · 2022 | 25 | €18.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Otávio Liga Portugal · 2019 | 24 | €17.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Rafa Silva Liga Portugal · 2019 | 26 | €28.0M | €23.0M | flat |
| Gastón Pereiro Eredivisie · 2019 | 24 | €12.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Sérgio Oliveira Super League 1 · 2019 | 27 | €9.0M | €19.0M | rose |
| Calvin Stengs Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €15.0M | €4.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2024 | Mainz | Benfica | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Mainz 05 U19 | Mainz | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Mainz 05 U17 | Mainz 05 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Erpeldange | Mainz 05 U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Erpeldingen U19 | Erpeldange | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | RFCU Luxem. U17 | Erpeldingen U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.