Leandro Barreiro

26 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · Luxembourg
SL Benfica · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 174 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€18.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€11.4M – €19.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€7.0M – €20.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€7.4M – €20.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€12.6M – €8.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€11.4M – €19.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€7.0M – €20.2M
Projected value (24 months)€7.4M – €20.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€18.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Leandro Barreiro's performance-implied value at EUR 7.0M-20.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.4M-19.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.4M-20.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (1750 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 35

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh80.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.5 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €15.7M vs market €18.0M
Expected appreciationLow-23% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €18.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1750 (57% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.41
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.21
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
80 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1634
Opponent strength
1329
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€7.4M – €20.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -65% to +47%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1750 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (MID)
Relative output kept
72%–151%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SL BenficaLiga PortugalCM31175057%350.410.21132916340.58
2024/25SL BenficaLiga PortugalCM27120439%340.520.23133216320.51
2023/241.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaDM31260785%410.170.17150914891.01
2022/231.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaCM31214470%440.340.29154014961.04
2021/221.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaCM31179058%130.200.21151615071.05
2020/211.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaCM29231476%220.160.20155314811.06
2019/201.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaCM1893731%020.190.21150614711.06
2018/191.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaDM1903%000.000.15160114881.05

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica9633201665
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingSL Benfica4143011508
2025/26Supercup Candido De OliveiraSL Benfica190001610
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica9261001686
2023/24Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05216000—
2022/23Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05314900—
2021/22Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05318900—
2020/21Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 0528700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Gabriel Pires
Liga Portugal · 2020
27€12.0M€5.0Mfell
Alan Dzagoev
Premier Liga · 2018
28€15.0M€5.5Mfell
Pepê
Liga Portugal · 2022
25€18.0M€30.0Mrose
Otávio
Liga Portugal · 2019
24€17.0M€24.0Mrose
Rafa Silva
Liga Portugal · 2019
26€28.0M€23.0Mflat
Gastón Pereiro
Eredivisie · 2019
24€12.0M€3.5Mfell
Sérgio Oliveira
Super League 1 · 2019
27€9.0M€19.0Mrose
Calvin Stengs
Eredivisie · 2024
26€15.0M€4.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
2 Jul 2024MainzBenficaFree / loan€17.0M
1 Jul 2018Mainz 05 U19MainzUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Mainz 05 U17Mainz 05 U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016ErpeldangeMainz 05 U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2016Erpeldingen U19ErpeldangeUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015RFCU Luxem. U17Erpeldingen U19Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Leandro Barreiro · MoneyballAI