Simone Canestrelli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Simone Canestrelli's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-4.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-7.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.8M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3201 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1260
- Opponent strength
- 1505
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €7.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -32% to +15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Pisa Sporting Club | Serie A | CB | 37 | 3201 | 94% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1505 | 1260 | 0.93 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Pisa Sporting Club | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimitrios Nikolaou Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €3.5M | €2.8M | fell |
| Akim Zedadka Ligue 1 · 2022 | 27 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Tim Leibold Bundesliga · 2019 | 26 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Amir Rrahmani Serie A · 2020 | 26 | €9.5M | €25.0M | rose |
| Carlos Neva Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Federico Baschirotto Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Christopher Jullien Ligue 1 · 2019 | 26 | €6.0M | €5.5M | flat |
| Federico Ceccherini Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2023 | Como | Pisa | Free / loan | €900k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Pisa | Como | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jan 2023 | FC Empoli | Pisa | €2.6M | €1.0M |
| 29 Jan 2023 | Pisa | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 18 Jul 2022 | FC Empoli | Pisa | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Crotone | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 27 Aug 2021 | FC Empoli | Crotone | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | UC AlbinoLeffe | FC Empoli | Unknown | €300k |
| 19 Jul 2019 | Empoli U19 | UC AlbinoLeffe | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Empoli U17 | Empoli U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Empoli FC Youth | Empoli U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.