Ritsu Doan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ritsu Doan's performance-implied value at EUR 8.6M-21.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.9M-18.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.9M-13.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (2379 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €14.5M vs market €17.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2379 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1445
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.9M – €13.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -44% to -2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | RW | 31 | 2379 | 78% | 5 | 5 | 0.38 | 0.34 | 1491 | 1445 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | RW | 34 | 2874 | 94% | 10 | 8 | 0.56 | 0.46 | 1499 | 1505 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | RW | 30 | 2256 | 74% | 7 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.38 | 1496 | 1481 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | RW | 33 | 2449 | 80% | 5 | 6 | 0.40 | 0.31 | 1517 | 1561 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RW | 24 | 1520 | 50% | 8 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.30 | 1355 | 1641 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Arminia Bielefeld | Bundesliga | RW | 34 | 2787 | 91% | 5 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 1532 | 1384 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RW | 19 | 1025 | 44% | 2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 1323 | 1553 | 0.62 |
| 2019/20 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | AM | 2 | 180 | 8% | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.32 | 1249 | 1345 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | RW | 30 | 2618 | 86% | 5 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 1346 | 1356 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | AM | 29 | 2295 | 75% | 9 | 4 | 0.51 | 0.48 | 1326 | 1346 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 478 | 0 | 1 | 1647 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Japan | 3 | 215 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 200 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 160 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 10 | 797 | 2 | 3 | 1539 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 172 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 7 | 472 | 1 | 1 | 1468 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 5 | 389 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 246 | 0 | 1 | 1423 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 198 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Arminia Bielefeld | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 232 | 0 | 2 | 1515 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 2 | 122 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaëtan Laborde Ligue 1 · 2023 | 29 | €16.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Marko Arnautovic Premier League · 2017 | 28 | €15.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Troy Deeney Premier League · 2017 | 29 | €11.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Vedat Muriqi Laliga · 2024 | 30 | €12.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Andy Delort Ligue 1 · 2020 | 29 | €10.5M | €13.0M | rose |
| Nikola Kalinic Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Iñaki Williams Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €25.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Franco Vázquez Serie A · 2016 | 27 | €13.0M | €7.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2025 | Freiburg | Frankfurt | €21.0M | €25.0M |
| 5 Jul 2022 | PSV | Freiburg | €10.4M | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Arm. Bielefeld | PSV | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 5 Sept 2020 | PSV | Arm. Bielefeld | Free / loan | €6.3M |
| 30 Aug 2019 | FC Groningen | PSV | €7.5M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Gamba Osaka | FC Groningen | €1.7M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | FC Groningen | Gamba Osaka | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Gamba Osaka | FC Groningen | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Feb 2016 | Gamba U18 | Gamba Osaka | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.