Nayef Aguerd
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nayef Aguerd's performance-implied value at EUR 4.3M-19.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.9M-15.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-9.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €10.9M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -63% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1579 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1506
- Opponent strength
- 1483
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €9.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output up 162% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -76% (IQR -79% to -70%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1579 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 16 | 1399 | 46% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1483 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2025/26 | West Ham United | Premier League | CB | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1540 | 1520 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 21 | 1763 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1522 | 1464 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | West Ham United | Premier League | CB | 21 | 1859 | 54% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 1551 | 1540 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | West Ham United | Premier League | CB | 18 | 1595 | 47% | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1546 | 1600 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CB | 31 | 2738 | 80% | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1429 | 1581 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CB | 35 | 3148 | 92% | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1443 | 1445 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Dijon FCO | Ligue 1 | CB | 12 | 1048 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1454 | 1346 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Dijon FCO | Ligue 1 | CB | 13 | 1051 | 31% | 3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 1468 | 1322 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Morocco | 7 | 690 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1575 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 11 | 881 | 0 | 0 | 1527 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 4 | 284 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | West Ham United | 6 | 409 | 1 | 0 | 1504 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Stade Rennais FC | 2 | 180 | 2 | 0 | 1514 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Stade Rennais FC | 4 | 273 | 0 | 0 | 1616 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Telles Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €7.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Berat Djimsiti Serie A · 2023 | 30 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Aritz Elustondo Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €14.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Sidnei Laliga · 2019 | 30 | €10.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Guillermo Maripán Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €10.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Tomas Hubocan Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €6.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Fabricio Coloccini Premier League · 2013 | 31 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Nikola Maksimović Serie A · 2020 | 29 | €13.5M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | West Ham | Marseille | €23.0M | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Real Sociedad | West Ham | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | West Ham | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Stade Rennais | West Ham | €35.0M | €12.0M |
| 14 Aug 2020 | Dijon | Stade Rennais | €4.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FUS Rabat | Dijon | €1.6M | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | AM Football | FUS Rabat | €15k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.