Vladyslav Dubinchak
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vladyslav Dubinchak's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-2.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 913 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1324
- Opponent strength
- 1130
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €751k – €2.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts; team strength down (-82 Elo); relative output down 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -72% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 913 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | LB | 14 | 913 | 34% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1130 | 1324 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | LB | 21 | 1446 | 54% | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 1192 | 1406 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | LB | 22 | 1664 | 62% | 1 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 1241 | 1458 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | LB | 18 | 1176 | 44% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 1244 | 1433 | 0.38 |
| 2021/22 | SC Dnipro-1 | Premier Liga | LB | 16 | 1440 | 89% | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 1268 | 1365 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | SC Dnipro-1 | Premier Liga | LB | 22 | 1880 | 80% | 0 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 1286 | 1283 | 0.49 |
| 2019/20 | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | Premier Liga | LB | 18 | 1597 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1331 | 1195 | 0.54 |
| 2018/19 | Arsenal Kyiv | Premier Liga | LB | 19 | 1706 | 86% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 1318 | 1186 | 0.57 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | 1394 |
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 101 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1532 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | 1562 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Dynamo Kyiv | 4 | 287 | 0 | 0 | 1529 |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 133 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1428 |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 426 | 0 | 1 | 1449 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Dynamo Kyiv | 4 | 306 | 0 | 0 | 1532 |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | SC Dnipro-1 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Ukrainian Cup | SC Dnipro-1 | 3 | 255 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv (-2021) | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Mykhaylichenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Boli Bolingoli Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €2.2M | €700k | fell |
| Nazım Sangaré Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Roderick Miranda Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Mykyta Kravchenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Oleg Danchenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Zvonimir Sarlija Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €1.2M | €1.5M | rose |
| Umut Meraş Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €2.1M | €375k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2022 | SC Dnipro-1 | Dynamo Kyiv | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 28 Jul 2021 | Dynamo Kyiv | SC Dnipro-1 | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Dynamo Kyiv | Unknown | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | SC Dnipro-1 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Dynamo Kyiv II | SC Dnipro-1 | Free / loan | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Karpaty Lviv | Dynamo Kyiv II | Free / loan | €450k |
| 2 Jul 2019 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Arsenal Kyiv | Dynamo Kyiv II | Free / loan | €500k |
| 19 Jul 2018 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Arsenal Kyiv | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.