Leo Østigård
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Leo Østigård's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-12.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.8M-17.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.8M-15.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 17
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 74.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.7M vs market €13.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2623 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 74 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1407
- Opponent strength
- 1483
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.8M – €15.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output up 233% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -45% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 30 | 2623 | 77% | 5 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 1483 | 1406 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CB | 16 | 1228 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1459 | 1450 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 11 | 928 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1474 | 1415 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CB | 25 | 1621 | 47% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 1450 | 1569 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CB | 7 | 417 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1368 | 1739 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | CB | 14 | 1128 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1512 | 1325 | 0.89 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Norway | 3 | 113 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 4 | 186 | 1 | 0 | 1651 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | SSC Napoli | 2 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1727 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 3 | 196 | 1 | 0 | 1697 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 82 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 111 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Coventry City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bremer Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €10.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Rani Khedira Bundesliga · 2019 | 25 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Kenny Lala Ligue 1 · 2019 | 28 | €14.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Stefan Posch Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €14.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Kaan Ayhan Bundesliga · 2019 | 25 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Philipp Max Bundesliga · 2020 | 27 | €13.5M | €8.0M | fell |
| Maciej Rybus Premier Liga · 2016 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Ozan Kabak Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | Stade Rennais | Genoa | €2.5M | €10.0M |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Genoa | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 29 Jul 2025 | Stade Rennais | Genoa | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Hoffenheim | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Stade Rennais | Hoffenheim | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 30 Jul 2024 | Napoli | Stade Rennais | €7.4M | €8.0M |
| 18 Jul 2022 | Brighton | Napoli | €5.5M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Genoa | Brighton | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 5 Jan 2022 | Brighton | Genoa | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 4 Jan 2022 | Stoke City | Brighton | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 10 Aug 2021 | Brighton | Stoke City | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 May 2021 | Coventry | Brighton | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 27 Aug 2020 | Brighton | Coventry | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | St. Pauli | Brighton | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 18 Jul 2019 | Brighton | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €150k |
| 8 Aug 2018 | Molde FK | Brighton | €110k | €50k |
| 7 Aug 2018 | Viking FK | Molde FK | Free / loan | €50k |
| 13 Mar 2018 | Molde FK | Viking FK | Free / loan | €50k |
| 11 Jan 2018 | Molde FK II | Molde FK | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Molde FK Youth | Molde FK II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.