Ozan Kabak
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ozan Kabak's performance-implied value at EUR 2.7M-12.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.8M-21.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.5M-16.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 19
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 73.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.2M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1745 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 74 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1508
- Opponent strength
- 1462
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.5M – €16.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -34% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1745 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 25 | 1745 | 57% | 4 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.11 | 1462 | 1508 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 28 | 2291 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 1536 | 1471 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2393 | 78% | 2 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1542 | 1444 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Norwich City | Premier League | CB | 11 | 924 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1591 | 1275 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CB | 14 | 1245 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1550 | 1303 | 1.06 |
| 2020/21 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 9 | 803 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1557 | 1763 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CB | 26 | 1775 | 58% | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 1533 | 1415 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CB | 15 | 1350 | 44% | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 1520 | 1402 | 1.05 |
| 2018/19 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CB | 13 | 1084 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1391 | 1511 | 0.58 |
| 2017/18 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | CB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1340 | 1566 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Turkiye | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 35 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 191 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Norwich City | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 4 | 321 | 0 | 0 | 1761 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 2 | 164 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1572 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro Pereira Serie A · 2013 | 28 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Guillermo Maripán Ligue 1 · 2020 | 26 | €11.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Yuto Nagatomo Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €12.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Ko Itakura Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Marc Bartra Laliga · 2018 | 27 | €17.5M | €17.5M | flat |
| Alessandro Florenzi Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €18.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Kristijan Jakic Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €7.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Medhi Benatia Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €13.0M | €26.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2022 | FC Schalke 04 | Hoffenheim | €7.0M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Norwich | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Aug 2021 | FC Schalke 04 | Norwich | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Liverpool | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | FC Schalke 04 | Liverpool | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Stuttgart | FC Schalke 04 | €15.0M | €15.0M |
| 17 Jan 2019 | Galatasaray | Stuttgart | €11.0M | €6.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Galatasaray U21 | Galatasaray | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Galatasaray U17 | Galatasaray U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Galatasaray U16 | Galatasaray U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Galatasaray Yth | Galatasaray U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 3 Oct 2011 | Silivrispor Yth | Galatasaray Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.