Danil Krugovoy
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Danil Krugovoy's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-5.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-5.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-6.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.43x the positional average in the league (2502 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 64
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.4M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2502 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.47
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1436
- Opponent strength
- 1320
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.6M – €6.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 21 pts; role change LM -> RM; relative output up 55% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -59% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | RM | 30 | 2502 | 93% | 6 | 7 | 0.47 | 0.32 | 1320 | 1436 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | LM | 24 | 1948 | 72% | 1 | 5 | 0.28 | 0.20 | 1267 | 1478 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LM | 12 | 489 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 1293 | 1491 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LB | 19 | 612 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1299 | 1582 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LB | 26 | 1280 | 47% | 2 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.17 | 1309 | 1530 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LB | 19 | 588 | 22% | 0 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.17 | 1287 | 1544 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | LM | 12 | 775 | 29% | 0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.35 | 1386 | 1333 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | LM | 9 | 689 | 26% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.24 | 1394 | 1318 | 0.69 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 11 | 572 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1511 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 7 | 174 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 6 | 540 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 7 | 391 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1359 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 162 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1599 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 6 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1718 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 4 | 158 | 0 | 0 | 1592 |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Russian Cup | FK Ufa | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oleksandr Karavaev Premier Liga · 2019 | 27 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Dmitriy Barinov Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Julien De Sart Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 28 | €3.0M | €7.5M | rose |
| Vladlen Yurchenko Premier Liga · 2021 | 27 | €2.5M | €900k | fell |
| Pavlo Ksyonz Premier Liga · 2015 | 28 | €2.5M | €600k | fell |
| Ruud Vormer Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 29 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Castro Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €5.8M | €2.5M | fell |
| Nicolai Vallys Superliga · 2024 | 28 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Zenit S-Pb | CSKA Moscow | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Ufa | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 22 Aug 2019 | Zenit S-Pb | Ufa | Free / loan | €700k |
| 21 Aug 2019 | Ufa | Zenit S-Pb | €2.0M | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Ufa | €130k | €250k |
| 29 Aug 2016 | Zenit II | Zenit 2 S-Pb | Unknown | €100k |
| 31 Aug 2015 | Zenit U17 | Zenit II | Unknown | €100k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.