Bünyamin Balcı
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bünyamin Balcı's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 87
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 16.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €687k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2351 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 17 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1139
- Opponent strength
- 1277
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €995k – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts; relative output up 125% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -40% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | RB | 33 | 2351 | 77% | 0 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 1277 | 1139 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | RB | 20 | 1366 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1305 | 1181 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | RB | 23 | 1865 | 55% | 1 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 1295 | 1244 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | RB | 34 | 2816 | 87% | 0 | 4 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1294 | 1274 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | RB | 34 | 2740 | 80% | 2 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 1265 | 1334 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | RB | 35 | 3024 | 84% | 2 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1284 | 1188 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | RB | 16 | 1281 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1333 | 1282 | 0.45 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kakkoev Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Stelios Kitsiou Super Lig · 2020 | 27 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Andreaw Gravillon Super Lig · 2024 | 26 | €3.7M | €1.0M | fell |
| Florent Hadergjonaj Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.1M | fell |
| Dino Arslanagic Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Viktor Aleksandrov Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €1.5M | €900k | fell |
| Grégory Mertens Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 23 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Casper Højer Superliga · 2019 | 25 | €700k | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2019 | Antalyaspor U21 | Antalyaspor | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Antalyaspor U19 | Antalyaspor U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 12 Dec 2016 | Antalyaspor Yth | Antalyaspor U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.