Patrick Sequeira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Patrick Sequeira's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-3.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 81
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 41th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2528 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 41 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1331
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €3.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -27% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 182 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–147%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 73%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | GK | 29 | 2528 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1331 | 1225 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1345 | 1276 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Dutoit Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ilya Lantratov Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Ricardo Velho Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Lars Unnerstall Eredivisie · 2018 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.8M | rose |
| Hervé Koffi Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 28 | €2.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Cláudio Ramos Liga Portugal · 2020 | 29 | €1.6M | €1.5M | flat |
| Robbin Ruiter Eredivisie · 2015 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Ilya Pomazun Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2024 | UD Ibiza | Casa Pia | €150k | €600k |
| 3 Jul 2023 | CD Lugo | UD Ibiza | Free / loan | €200k |
| 4 Jul 2022 | Real Unión | CD Lugo | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Celta Vigo B | Real Unión | Free / loan | €150k |
| 9 Sept 2020 | Real Unión | Celta Vigo B | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Saprissa | Real Unión | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Real Unión | Saprissa | Free / loan | €50k |
| 21 Aug 2017 | Saprissa | Real Unión | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Saprissa U20 | Saprissa | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Limón U20 | Saprissa U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.