Artem Makarchuk
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Artem Makarchuk's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.22x the positional average in the league (1071 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €218k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1071 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 13 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1197
- Opponent strength
- 1387
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €256k – €585k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -45% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1071 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | LM | 18 | 1071 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.27 | 1387 | 1197 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | LM | 28 | 1938 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1330 | 1222 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | LM | 29 | 2289 | 85% | 1 | 5 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 1319 | 1310 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | LM | 10 | 745 | 28% | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 1357 | 1441 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 3 | 192 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 2 | 99 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 6 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Baltika | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandley Kuwas Super Lig · 2023 | 31 | €550k | €300k | fell |
| Jean Felipe Liga Portugal · 2024 | 30 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Lionel Ainsworth Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 30 | €450k | €350k | fell |
| Navarone Foor Eredivisie · 2023 | 31 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Viera Ellong Super League 1 · 2017 | 30 | €450k | €250k | fell |
| Maxime Annys Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 31 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Robin Yalçın Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Daniel Lukasik Super Lig · 2020 | 29 | €475k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Feb 2022 | Baltika | FK Sochi | €115k | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Fakel Voronezh | Baltika | Free / loan | €300k |
| 10 Jul 2018 | Luch Vladivostok | Fakel Voronezh | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Baltika | Luch-Energia | Free / loan | €100k |
| 10 Jul 2015 | Baltika 2 | Baltika | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.