Alexis Saelemaekers
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alexis Saelemaekers's performance-implied value at EUR 11.6M-30.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.4M-20.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.8M-24.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (2802 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €17.2M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2802 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1498
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.8M – €24.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 38 pts; changed club; team strength down (-95 Elo); relative output down 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -62% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AC Milan | Serie A | RM | 35 | 2802 | 82% | 3 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 1498 | 1570 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | RM | 22 | 1400 | 41% | 7 | 5 | 0.77 | 0.44 | 1463 | 1668 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | AC Milan | Serie A | LB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1510 | 1625 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | LW | 30 | 1894 | 55% | 4 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 1485 | 1579 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | AC Milan | Serie A | RW | 30 | 1399 | 41% | 2 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.25 | 1452 | 1622 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | AC Milan | Serie A | RW | 36 | 1865 | 55% | 1 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1456 | 1683 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | AC Milan | Serie A | RW | 32 | 2032 | 59% | 2 | 5 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 1456 | 1639 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 16 | 1168 | 45% | 2 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.35 | 1395 | 1443 | 0.63 |
| 2019/20 | AC Milan | Serie A | RW | 13 | 682 | 20% | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.31 | 1486 | 1590 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 23 | 1605 | 59% | 0 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 1360 | 1452 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 1 | 16 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1264 | 1490 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 3 | 206 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Belgium | 2 | 76 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1647 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 7 | 254 | 0 | 1 | 1556 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 142 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 205 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 8 | 372 | 2 | 0 | 1670 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 6 | 444 | 0 | 0 | 1712 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 4 | 181 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AC Milan | 3 | 259 | 1 | 1 | 1389 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 4 | 193 | 0 | 1 | 1711 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 85 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 3 | 182 | 0 | 0 | 1506 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Karsdorp Serie A · 2021 | 26 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Iván Martín Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jerdy Schouten Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €12.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Yannick Gerhardt Bundesliga · 2019 | 25 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Matteo Pessina Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Nico Schulz Bundesliga · 2019 | 26 | €25.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Joakim Maehle Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €14.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Denis Suárez Laliga · 2021 | 27 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Roma | AC Milan | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | AC Milan | Roma | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Bologna | AC Milan | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 30 Aug 2023 | AC Milan | Bologna | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | RSC Anderlecht | AC Milan | €7.7M | €8.0M |
| 31 Aug 2020 | AC Milan | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 31 Jan 2020 | RSC Anderlecht | AC Milan | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Anderlecht U21 | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Anderlecht U19 | Anderlecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Anderlecht U17 | Anderlecht U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Anderlecht Yth. | Anderlecht U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.