Rubén Vargas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rubén Vargas's performance-implied value at EUR 3.8M-11.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.2M-14.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.9M-11.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.40x the positional average in the league (1610 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €9.6M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1610 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.50
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.57
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1397
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.9M – €11.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; relative output up 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +22% (IQR -34% to +74%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1610 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | LW | 24 | 1610 | 47% | 3 | 6 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 1491 | 1397 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | LW | 11 | 678 | 20% | 2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 1493 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | LW | 8 | 304 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1468 | 1404 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 31 | 1977 | 65% | 4 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 1520 | 1393 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | RW | 23 | 1134 | 37% | 3 | 5 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 1519 | 1378 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | LW | 29 | 2001 | 65% | 1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.33 | 1520 | 1425 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | LW | 30 | 1614 | 53% | 6 | 3 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 1503 | 1396 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | LW | 33 | 2538 | 83% | 6 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.37 | 1531 | 1408 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Switzerland | 3 | 178 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 2 | 65 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 67 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 64 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 2 | 135 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serhou Guirassy Bundesliga · 2023 | 27 | €14.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Vedat Muriqi Laliga · 2022 | 28 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Andrea Petagna Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €10.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Mergim Berisha Bundesliga · 2023 | 25 | €12.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Andreas Cornelius Serie A · 2020 | 27 | €8.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Vincenzo Grifo Bundesliga · 2019 | 26 | €9.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Leonardo Pavoletti Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €5.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Robin Hack Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2025 | Augsburg | Sevilla FC | €2.5M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Luzern | Augsburg | €4.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Luzern U21 | FC Luzern | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Luzern U18 | Luzern U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Luzern U17 | Luzern U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.