Anthony Ralston
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Anthony Ralston's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 75
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €536k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -36% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1186 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1189
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €497k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 21 pts; team strength down (-106 Elo); relative output down 73% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -50% to -29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1186 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 20 | 1186 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1189 | 1406 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 13 | 564 | 19% | 2 | 2 | 0.64 | 0.15 | 1185 | 1512 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 13 | 789 | 27% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 1210 | 1511 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 11 | 874 | 29% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1273 | 1588 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 23 | 1784 | 60% | 4 | 7 | 0.55 | 0.20 | 1275 | 1575 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1318 | 1534 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 22 | 1892 | 72% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1262 | 1260 | 0.52 |
| 2019/20 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 2 | 42 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1218 | 1608 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 3 | 225 | 8% | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.09 | 1240 | 1525 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 3 | 241 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1247 | 1570 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1340 | 1639 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 1 | 16 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1300 | 1524 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 5 | 172 | 0 | 0 | 1553 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 2 | 161 | 0 | 0 | 1435 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Scotland | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 2 | 103 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Celtic FC | 3 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1544 |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 2 | 108 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 1 | 36 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 5 | 450 | 1 | 0 | 1524 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1446 |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 3 | 233 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1440 |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 2 | 167 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1305 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1371 |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Celtic FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1786 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1432 |
| 2015/16 | Scottish Fa Cup | Queen's Park FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joan Sastre Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.3M | flat |
| Nathaniel Atkinson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Samba Camara Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €1.6M | €300k | fell |
| Uros Cosic Super League 1 · 2019 | 27 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Georgios Katsikas Super League 1 · 2015 | 25 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Ousseynou Ba Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Gerasimos Mitoglou Super League 1 · 2024 | 25 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Achilleas Poungouras Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €600k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr 2020 | St. Johnstone | Celtic | Free / loan | €450k |
| 2 Sept 2019 | Celtic | St. Johnstone | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Celtic U20 | Celtic | Unknown | €500k |
| 14 May 2018 | Dundee United | Celtic U20 | Free / loan | €500k |
| 16 Mar 2018 | Celtic U20 | Dundee United | Free / loan | €500k |
| 28 Jan 2016 | Queen's Park | Celtic U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 15 Aug 2015 | Celtic U20 | Queen's Park | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Celtic U17 | Celtic U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.