Derrick Köhn
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Derrick Köhn's performance-implied value at EUR 2.6M-6.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-4.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-4.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (1902 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.8M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1902 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1392
- Opponent strength
- 1478
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €4.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; changed club; team strength down (-95 Elo); relative output down 23% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -48% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | LM | 29 | 1902 | 62% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 1478 | 1392 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | LM | 27 | 1347 | 44% | 2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 1482 | 1483 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | LB | 1 | 87 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1163 | 1557 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | LB | 13 | 1153 | 34% | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 1295 | 1597 | 0.45 |
| 2021/22 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | LB | 31 | 2534 | 83% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 1372 | 1237 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | LB | 31 | 2566 | 84% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1373 | 1265 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 3 | 250 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Hannover 96 | 1 | 52 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Willem II Tilburg | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Willem II Tilburg | 2 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 1529 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Willem II Tilburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mërgim Vojvoda Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €5.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Jasmin Kurtic Serie A · 2016 | 27 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Rémi Oudin Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Ibrahima Sissoko Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Bongani Zungu Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €3.5M | €1.6M | fell |
| Filippo Bandinelli Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Dejan Ljubicic Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Leonardo Bittencourt Bundesliga · 2020 | 27 | €4.8M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2025 | Galatasaray | Union Berlin | €4.0M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Werder Bremen | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Galatasaray | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 8 Feb 2024 | Hannover 96 | Galatasaray | €3.4M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Willem II | Hannover 96 | €500k | €550k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | FC Bayern II | Willem II | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | HSV U19 | FC Bayern II | €100k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Hamburg U17 | HSV U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | HSV Yth. | Hamburg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Bramfeld Yth. | HSV Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.