Gabriele Zappa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gabriele Zappa's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-6.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 73
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1594 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1376
- Opponent strength
- 1500
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 43 pts; relative output up 121% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -48% to +12%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1594 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | RB | 31 | 1594 | 47% | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 1500 | 1376 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | RB | 37 | 3062 | 90% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 1518 | 1368 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | RB | 38 | 2559 | 75% | 1 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 1479 | 1349 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | RB | 25 | 1138 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1524 | 1310 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | RB | 34 | 2402 | 70% | 0 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 1479 | 1373 | 0.90 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 249 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koray Günter Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Pablo Maffeo Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Gerzino Nyamsi Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Abdelhamid El Kaoutari Ligue 1 · 2016 | 26 | €2.5M | €550k | fell |
| Mateusz Wieteska Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Nicolas Pallois Ligue 1 · 2016 | 29 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw Bundesliga · 2017 | 26 | €3.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Alexandru Epureanu Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2021 | Pescara | Cagliari | €3.2M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Cagliari | Pescara | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 8 Sept 2020 | Pescara | Cagliari | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Inter U19 | Pescara | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Pescara | Inter U19 | Free / loan | €75k |
| 30 Jan 2019 | Inter | Pescara | €3.0M | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Inter Youth | Inter U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Acc. Inter | Inter Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.